Soccer Picks: Preview Elche 05 vs. Atletico Madrid

Nila Amerova

Wednesday, November 27, 2013 7:22 PM UTC

Wednesday, Nov. 27, 2013 7:22 PM UTC

As Champions League winds down sports bettors have a whole slew of European domestic league action to look forward to at the weekend.

Join us as we preview La Liga’s clash between Elche and Atletico Madrid complete with soccer free picks.

Atletico Madrid hot on the trot

Spain’s Primera League serves up some cracking matchups to spot, including the clash between Elche and Atletico Madrid, one the visitors will be looking to win at favourable -200 betting odds at Bet365 in order to maintain pressure on Barcelona at the top of the table. And if their current form were any indication, Elche must be extremely wary of La Liga’s second best club this season.

Atletico (12-1-1) threw down the gauntlet last weekend with a crushing victory over Getafe, beating the visitors 7-0. That Getafe’s defence was shaky and prove to be a factor was no secret. We certainly spotted it in our match preview and soccer picks piece by recommending the Over 2.5 on the totals. But, admittedly, even we didn’t quite expect such a complete performance by Atletico and in turn utter capitulation by Getafe. Six unanswered goals save for Lopo’s own goal! [Crikey, what an awful night for the Azulones].

It was a tame half to start the game – well, in the context of the final score it was –  with the Madrid side taking just a 2-0 lead into half time courtesy of Raul Garcia opening the scoring at the 26th minute and Lopo’s own goal. The second half was an entirely different story however as the floodgates burst open under the pressure of wave upon wave of attacking Rojiblancos. Garcia added another to his tally while Villa (not to be outdone of course) scored two as well and Diego Costa and Adrian each scored once to round out Getafe’s miserable night on an emphatic note. 

Just one final chirp about that result and we’ll move on: the 7-0 victory marked Atletico’s fifth game this season in which they’ve scored four or more goals, although that result was by far their highest tally. Previous best score was a 5-0 score, which they accomplished twice – against Rayo Vallecano (at the start of the season) and Real Betis just last month.

Atletico Madrid are flush of a 1-1 draw against St. Petersburg in midweek Champions League action, game Diego Simeone fielded (as expected) a second-tier side and that despite lacking in regular play did manage to rise to the occasion and bring home a result.

Tale told, Atletico Madrid’s divine form doesn’t provide good reading for Elche and it remains to be seen how they approach this game. It will take nothing short of brilliance to beat Atletico, who despite travelling to Russia on Tuesday will have most of their regulars well rested and raring to go. It’s no wonder therefore Elche is on offer across sportsbooks at a rather hefty soccer odds to win outright at +500.

It’s not that sportsbooks are disrespecting Elche, suggesting they are a complete no-hoper. On the contrary, they are having a decent campaign all things being considered, picking up 17 points through 14 rounds of Primera action with a 4-5-5 mark, which includes a 2-2-3 mark at home. But when Atletico Madrid are a full 20 points ahead in the table, the gap in quality is made rather striking. Soccer odds on a win by Elche simply reflect that gap. 

There is always a slim possibility of a win by a long shot or a lesser upset in the form of a draw, which is trading at +300 at Bet365. Neither of the two would be our recommended soccer pick here but if you are so inclined a few things do stand out towards that end.

Elche are after beating Valencia at home at the weekend, a result that forced Valencia down from ninth to eleventh in the table. As well, Elche have opened the scoring in three of their last six games home and away, which suggests they have about (theoretically) 50% chance of doing so against the Rojiblancos. That’s not exactly a recommendation for the win (or even the draw) but it could make for an interesting contest that would apply scoreboard pressure on Atletico and in turn force the total Over 2.5 at +110.

The definitive reading in our opinion however is their record in the last five home games that reads WLLWL. (Defeats came to Real Madrid, Granada and Villarreal while victories were achieved against Espanyol and Valencia.)  

More Champions League picks here~

The most striking aspect of which is the fact that across four of the five games (including the two victories) Elche conceded just one goal in each. Only Real Madrid were able to get two past their solid defence.  What this tells us is that Atletico Madrid will face a much tougher defence in Elche than they did in Getafe, a more disciplined side that will play within themselves and the scoreboard. So while we’re banking on an Atletico win at -200, it won’t be a lopsided margin. So Atletico Madrid at -1 on the handicap result at +130 might be an option or at -2 at +375.

Soccer Free Picks: Atletico Madrid at -200 and Over 2.5 at +110

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