Soccer Picks: Parma vs. Bologna Serie A Tips

Nila Amerova

Friday, November 29, 2013 1:21 PM GMT

We’re casting our eye on Italy’s Serie A this weekend, specifically the clash between Parma and Bologna slated for Saturday. Find out what soccer free picks we’ve discovered to offer the best value in this clash.

Serie A betting is plodding along nicely, heading into round 14 this weekend and the deeper into the season the league plunges, the more important points become even if there is still tons of football still to be played. You see, already, there is a great divide between the Big Four and the rest of the field. Complicating matters as well, the gap from seventh spot to the relegation zone is becoming exceedingly crowded with teams separated by only a handful of points, which means that in any given week significant shifts and moves can occur.

Parma is one such club that is hobnobbing inside the Top 10 but their perch in ninth place is tentative at best. On the back of a 4-4-5 mark they have collected 16 points – the same as Atalanta and Udinese in tenth and eleventh, respectively. The most conspicuous aspect of their deceptive tenure is the six-point difference between ninth place and the cut off line wherein Sampdoria currently resides. That’s but a mere two match-win difference. Hardly what you would consider security in their surroundings.

Parma host Bologna at the weekend, a side that sits in 17th spot (just above relegation) but are just 5 points shy. On paper, Bologna (2-5-6) present a winnable match that Parma will be desperate to take advantage of in order to establish themselves firmly inside the better half of the table. A misstep of course would be extremely costly.

As far as sportsbooks are concerned, Parma are deemed the favourites at -125 to win outright. Bologna by contrast are considered the massive underdogs at +350 to win outright at Bet365 while the draw is a far-flung +250 bet. Given the current landscape and standings of each in the league, the market makes sense. But form however on both sides suggests that this could be a closer contest than the soccer odds makers would have you believe.

Recommending Parma on the win is perceptible improvement on form in recent weeks. They are undefeated in their last two engagements, which include a 1-1 draw to Lazio and an impressive 1-0 win over Napoli – just one of several title threats in Serie A earmarked by sportsbooks across the board. Form in the last five games is modestly encouraging with a 2-1-2 mark – the second win includes a 3-2 win over AC Milan (a reputable club but one that has fallen to the wayside this season, unfortunately so that win has to be taken in the context of Milan’s perplexing form).

Bologna by contrast have also shown positive signs that simply can’t be ignored. In fact, their form in the last five provides better reading with points taken in four of their last five on the back of a 2-2-1 mark. Granted, most of those contests included lesser opposition in the broad spectrum of the league and, as such, they must be taken with reservation. It also suggests that Bologna does merit their somewhat fanciful soccer odds.  But they did manage a 1-1 draw to Internazionale on their last lap and that positive result could prove to be a confidence boost for them ahead of their clash with Parma – a side that is hardly comparable to fourth-placed Inter now.

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Soccer Betting Verdict: On balance, the sports betting odds do make sense but that doesn’t necessarily mean that they are correct. This is a winnable match by either side. Hence, there is value on both ends of the coin, especially if you are inclined towards the underdogs or towards the pair cancelling each other out with a draw on your soccer picks.

That said the deciding reality for our recommendation is Parma’s home form versus Bologna’s road form. The hosts have failed to take points in only two of their seven home matches – going 3-2-2. The visitors on the other hand have managed to take points in only two of their six outings, going 1-1-4. Given those stats, arguably the best choice for your soccer picks here therefore is the home win by Parma after all.

Soccer Free Picks: Parma to win outright at -125