Soccer Picks: Newcastle vs. Benfica Odds Evaluation

Mike Richardson

Wednesday, April 10, 2013 7:08 PM GMT

Benfica has got a little bit of history when it comes to Europa league matches against British sides as their last five quarter-final eliminations have come at the hands and feet of English teams.


Newcastle have it all to do when they take on Benfica in the second leg of their Europa League tie, but whether the Geordies win lose or draw you can make plenty of money if you follow your Humble Handicapper’s tips.

On a considerably lighter note Benfica has six consecutive Europa league victories but that don't need to make it seven. After their 3-1 victory over Newcastle in their home leg a draw of any description is enough to see them through at St James's Park. You should know that the visitors winning is at 6/4 while the aforementioned draw is 2/1 on Benfica going through is 1/7 on the Soccer Betting Odds Boards.

Enough with the away team…WHERE’S THE MONEY MIKE?

Newcastle are constantly running hot and cold and although your Humble Handicapper was right about them beating Fulham at the weekend they once again left it to the last moment. Interesting to note that Newcastle have a good record at home in a recent matches but five of their last home victories have been thanks to a last gasp winner.

Benfica by comparisons have been quite prolific this season and have scored 107 goals in all competitions, Newcastle have done considerably worse and have not scored more than one goal in their previous five matches.

Benfica have scored 18 in their last five so crunching those numbers would suggest that you should bet on repeat of the previous score in this game, and 31 is offered at 22/1 although I think that will be a little harsh on for Newcastle.

Winner Takes it All

It's interesting to note at this stage that the Geordies are 50/1 to lift Europa league cup this season while Benfica are 5/2. Those odds should tell you plainly who stands a better chance in this encounter and our Soccer Pick should reflect that a bit.

I'm sure Newcastle will be distracted by the time the Derby that they have coming up on Sunday but, although this may be hard to believe, they are a club with great European club competition history and I doubt that they will just roll over and have their tummies tickled by Benfica.

Newcastle need to win this game but more importantly they really do need to shut the door on Benfica as a single away goal would require Newcastle to score three.

See how to bet the match between Lazio and Fenerbache!

I think Newcastle will score I don't think Benfica will win but I do think that Benfica will progress to the next stage. I think that a draw is the most sensible result to bet on. The shortest correct score odds on Newcastle winning on 1-0 at 19/2,  but I find it difficult to believe that a Newcastle side that has only two clean sheets in their last five games and looked absolutely shattered on Sunday will be able to take the fight Benfica. I doubt this game will be goalless as too much is at stake and the visitors of having to prolific so avoid 0-0 at 10/1 and consider having another side bet on 1-1 at 5/1, but I expect a little bit more fun than that. Free Soccer Picks: Not enough for Newcastle 2-2 draw available at 16/1 with Bet 365.