Soccer Picks: Netherlands vs. Turkey in European Qualifying Action

Nikki Adams

Saturday, March 28, 2015 2:56 PM UTC

Saturday, Mar. 28, 2015 2:56 PM UTC

Join this soccer betting specialist in previewing Saturday's highly anticipated European Qualifying clash between Netherlands & Turkey. We share predictions, prop bets & our top pick.

Netherlands Off Pace
Netherlands are sat in third place in Group A, but six points behind group leaders Czech Republic. With the soccer odds for European Championship qualifying campaign already four rounds deep, the Dutch are seriously off pace and desperate to get back on track.

Group favourites to win outright the Oranje got their campaign off to the worst possible start. Defeats in the early rounds – losing 2-1 away to Czech Republic and 2-0 away to Iceland – have put a damper on their EURO 2016 hopes. While wins over group minnows have done nothing to endear them to soccer bettors.

All is not lost, obviously. More than half of group play is to be determined yet before the shortlist of national teams going to EURO 2016 is decided, but the Dutch are going to have to pick it up a notch or else they'll be sat on their couches come next summer watching footy on TV.

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Road Form A Concern
Obviously, they've struggled on the road so far (the absence of road wins a telling sign). Where they've had some joy, though, is on home turf after winning both matches before their loyal fans. Fortunately, their next game is a home game, marking an opportunity to get back on track in European championship qualifying.

There's something to be said about the quality of opponents they've hosted so far, both of which are Group A bottom dwellers: Kazakhstan and Latvia. Certainly, the Dutch had no trouble dismissing either threat and won both games handily (9-1 combined). But it would be premature to jump of the Oranje bandwagon or hold such easy wins against them.

Winning games you are supposed to win at home is vital. That they did so is a positive sign and should send them into their next home game with a measure of confidence. Indeed, odds makers send them into this game as the indisputable favourites at -200 soccer odds to win outright at the expense of Turkey.


Turkey Pose A Serious Threat
Match day 5 against Turkey is Netherland's first real test on home turf. Group A is proving to be one of the toughest in the competition and nothing can be taken for granted, including Turkey's underdog status for the game, which is evaluated at +650 soccer odds (or thereabouts) at online sports betting exchanges.

It's going to be incumbent on the Dutch to win this game and quell their doubters after Group A, which they were expected to win according to pre-tournament futures betting markets, was blown open by their early losses. If they lose, however, the criticism will be deafening. Not to mention, their campaign would be thrust into serious doubt.

Turkey are sat fourth in the table with a 1-1-2 mark and four points. They opened their campaign with a 3-0 loss away to Iceland and then dropped their home game with Czech Republic 2-1. In the last two rounds, though, the Turkish side appear to have bounced back, drawing 1-1 away to Latvia and beating Kazkhstan 3-1 at home.

Turkey's campaign share's similarities with Netherland's campaign, in that they also capitalised on the lack of quality and depth of both Group A minnows, all while succumbing to the section's current top two. Something is going to have to give when this pair collides on Saturday and based on current form it's anybody's guess.


Soccer Betting Verdict:
The Oranje have been somewhat disappointing in European championship qualifying thus far, which takes the shine off their favourable price tag of -200 to win outright currently trading on the soccer odds board.

Perhaps, the pressure was all too much for them or they just underestimated the opponents in their campaign's early defeats. They've had four months to recover and refocus their campaign, so it remains to be seen whether that break and home advantage on Saturday against Turkey – which, let's face it, appears singularly responsible for their overzealous soccer odds – proves to be the charm.

In previous instalments of the championships the Turkey were notorious for being dangerous floaters, and a side that built a reputation for masterminding upsets when least expected to. This Turkish instalment leaves much to be desired, making soccer picks on any of their large soccer odds (either to win at +650 or draw at +350 or both combined in double chance at +163) all risky. Still, they shouldn't be underestimated.

In short, Netherlands should win this game but we're not big fans of their -233 soccer odds from BetOnline to accomplish the feat. Those are too pricey soccer odds for a side that's yet to win a decent game. So the best value for your soccer picks is to look at periphery soccer betting markets, such as the Dutch to win both halves at +105; Over 2.5 goals at -125 and both teams to score [YES option] at +100.

Soccer Picks: Over 2.5 at -125

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