Soccer Picks: Napoli vs. Olympique de Marseille

Mike Richardson

Tuesday, November 5, 2013 9:39 PM GMT

Tuesday, Nov. 5, 2013 9:39 PM GMT

Your Humble Handicapper see’s money with a Champions League flavour when Napoli drag their sorry selves to the mighty Napoli in a David V Goliath clash on Wednesday night, but don’t back the little fella with your sports picks this time.

Group F sees Arsenal sitting pretty on the top of the table with six points after three games, but before the Gunners get all excited and start stocking up on trophy polish and bragging rights, they should know that out of a group of four, three teams have six points and it’s just sorry little Marseille that is currently like a broken pencil (pointless) in this group. It’s not all bad news, Rafa Benitez's Napoli could go top with a win.

Misery loves company

Marseille are fifth in France’s Ligue 1 after a merde run of form that has seen them fail to win in their last six matches in any competition. Although their last outing was a draw.

It’s technically a bottom of the table clash and Marseille will be buoyed to know that Napoli have the worse defensive record in Group F (after Marseille) having let in four goals, that’s as many as they have scored.

Marseille by comparison have scored just two goals in three games but have conceded seven. That sort of batting average would suggest 2-0 to Napoli, worth adding to your soccer picks at odds of 5/1.

Basic odds first

The sportsbooks have a home win at 2/5, an away win at 9/1 and a draw at 4/1. It’s obvious to everyone who can count just what those soccer odds mean, also the shortest correct score odds on an away win are 0-1 at 22/1, that’s the same odds as Napoli winning 4-0.

Team betting with harsh soccer odds

Marseille are a whopping 949/1 to win the Champions League, but what is considerably more likely is that they fail to reach the next stage as they are 50/1 to qualify,  and the sportsbooks have stopped offering odds on them finishing bottom. Napoli by comparison are 61/1 to win the CL (a fairly mad bet if ever there was one) but are at soccer odds of 8/11 to reach the knock out stages and 26/5 to finish dead last in the group.

It looks like it’s mission impossible for Marseille, as only one other team has ever qualify from the group stages after losing its first three matches (and one for the pub quizzers out there, that team was Newcastle United).

Also, home comforts

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Italy’s Napoli have not lost any of their five previous games where they have played at home in the Champions League.

So it’s a foregone conclusion – Napoli will win. But there is no need in backing that with your http://www.sportsbookreview.com/#mce_temp_url#.

It’s gonna be a big score too, as the tea leaves tell me that it’s implosion time for Marseille, so much so that I'm not even going to give them a consolation goal.

Prediction: Napoli win 3-0 available at 9/1 with Ladbrokes

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