Soccer Picks for Napoli vs. AC Milan

Nila Amerova

Friday, February 7, 2014 7:02 PM UTC

Friday, Feb. 7, 2014 7:02 PM UTC

Napoli look to bounce back from Coppa Italia setback when they take on AC Milan in Week 23 Serie A betting. Join us as we breakdown this dramatic soccer-betting clash with our choice free soccer picks.

Napoli look to bounce back

Napoli are back after a minor setback in their Coppa Italia semi-final clash with Roma, having lost 3-2 in the nation’s capital. However, a goal difference isn’t insurmountable. And the two away goals could yet prove advantageous in the reverse leg in Napoli next week.

In the meantime, Napoli look ahead to AC Milan’s visit on the weekend, what should be a highly entertaining and dramatic clash. Earlier this season, Napoli descended on the San Siro to beat AC Milan 2-1 and they’ll be looking to sweep the series in week 23 Serie Betting.

Sportsbooks however aren’t fully on board, listing Napoli as the +100 favourites to win outright, a rather curious market given Napoli’s top credentials this season and, at the same time, AC Milan’s continued struggles and inconsistencies in Serie A.

Napoli are third in the table on the back of 13-5-4 and 44 points. They are six points behind Roma and 15 points behind Juventus at the top of the table. Backing Napoli to win the Scudetto this season is still possible despite the huge gap; they are listed at +4000 in Bet365's futures betting markets to accomplish the feat. But the door is closing fast on that possibility.

Napoli enter this match on the heels of back-to-back defeats – a 3-0 defeat to Atalanta on the road and Coppa Italia defeat. In their last five matches across all competitions they are 1-2-2. That said, Serie A form is much better with a 2-2-1 mark in their last five games both home and away.

Home form that stands at 7-3-1 to date has recently taken a step back with their first defeat – a 1-0 defeat to Parma on November 23. And since then, they’ve settled on two draws and two wins.

AC Milan’s form has seen some improvements of late but not enough to prompt sportsbooks to tip them closer on the money line or for that matter to recommend them on the upset with any conviction. They are trading at +275 soccer odds or thereabouts to win outright in Napoli.

AC Milan are tenth in the table with a 7-8-7 mark and 29 points. Recently they bowed out of Coppa Italia in the quarterfinals with a 2-1 defeat to Udinese at San Siro. Since then they beat Cagliari 2-1 on the road and settled on a draw to Torino at home. Overall, they are 3-1-1 in their last five across all competitions. And they boast a similar mark in their last five home and away games in league action.

On the road however AC Milan have left much to be desired. Overall, they are 2-4-5 to date and 2-1-2 in their last five.

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Soccer Betting Verdict: Although odds makers aren’t firmly cornering this game in Napoli’s camp, they have to be considered the smart soccer pick because they have home advantage as well as much better form, amongst other things. AC Milan, by contrast, are enjoying a mini slump this season. What’s more, they can’t seem to buy a win on the road no matter how hard they try.

Overall, this is rather bizarre soccer betting market to say the least. Napoli should be heavily favoured to win this match outright. Since they aren’t, their +100 soccer odds practically leap of the page as the value soccer pick. Add the Over 2.5 at -125 for added betting value.

Soccer Free Picks: Napoli to win outright at +100, Over 2.5 at -125

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