Soccer Picks: Napoli v Udinese

Mike Richardson

Friday, December 6, 2013 9:51 PM GMT

There’s money to be won over in Serie A when Napoli take on Udinese in Italy’s top flight next weekend. And if you listen to your Humble Handicapper, you can taste some of it.


Napoli are siting third in Italy’s Serie A table, they’re three points off second place Roma, and six behind table topping Juventus.

What about recent results?

What’s more it seems that Napoli have stopped the rot after a three game losing run. They were back in action on Monday night and made a sterling return to winning ways with a 4-2 win over Lazio.

It was doubly sweet as, not only was it their first victory in four games, but it brought to an abrupt end to the a barren run that saw them score just one goal in three games (a run that saw them conceded seven).

Enough with Napoi’s good news…WHERE’S THE MONEY MIKE?

The sportsbooks reckon that Napoli will follow victory with victory. A home win for Rafa’s boys is at 8/15 while a draw is at 3/1 and an away win for Udinese is at 13/2.

If that’s not conclusive enough for you, you should know that Napoli winning both halves doesn’t get any better than 7/5 while the game being drawn on the 45 and Napoli’s at the 90 is at 7/2. Then the soccer odds fancy a draw across both halves (not a soccer bet that is going to trouble my pocket) at 5/1.

The soccer odds run pretty high on Udinese with them winning both halves at 11/1, the shortest soccer odds on them winning any half. It gets even worse as the bookies reckon it’s a 14/1 long shot that Udinese will snatch the game at the final whistle if it’s level at half time. And the odds on them going in behind at half time and coming out on top at full time are at 80/1.

So to recap

Napoli are going to win and Napoli are going to win both halves. Sadly, those soccer tips won’t make you rich but happily your Humble Handicapper is here to show you where you should be looking to place your soccer picks.

I’m going to discount current form with these two sides as they’ve both got two wins and three defeats from their last five.

What I find considerably more interesting is the fact that in the last four meetings between these two sides a very steady pattern has been followed.

When the game has been played at Udinese the game has ended drawn. 0-0 last time and 2-2 the time before.

I’ve already given you the odds on a draw, but a repeat of 0-0 is at 12/1 and 2-2 is at 20/1. Therefore I feel confident in discounting both these scores.

And when Napoli host Udinese they tend to win. That’s what happened the last two times this fixture has been played. And both times Napoli have scored two goals.

The last time these sides met at Napoli it ended 2-1 and the time before it ended 2-0. Those scores are fancied by the bookies as the sportsbooks have them at the short odds of 7/1 (both).

Because Napoli have found the way back to score-city lately but haven’t kept a clean sheet in any of their last five games, I’m going for a heavy scoring game.

Prediction: Napoli win 3-1 available at best soccer odds of 14/1 with Ladbrokes.