Soccer Picks: Mexico vs. Panama Gold Cup Odds Analysis

Mike Richardson

Monday, July 22, 2013 8:16 PM GMT

We’re down to the last four in the CONCACAF Gold Cup and your Humble Handicapper can practically smell the money. Can you? Read on for our Gold Cup predictions!


If you followed your Humble Handicapper's betting tips, you’ll have your Royal Baby winnings to play with, so why not increase your stash with a couple of bets on the semi-finals of the Gold Cup? Read on to find out which team makes for a better sports pick.

Panama may look like they're playing at being champions already with the stats that they posted against Cuba: 10 shots on goal against just 2 from the Cubans, 6 wide shots against 1 and 62% ball possession.

But Mexico are no Cuba (just tell the USA that). Mexico had a similar 10 shots on goal against Trinidad versus 6 from the opposing team; and the wide shots were even closer at 7 -6 favoring Mexico. The possession was a tight one too, at 61% to Mexico.

Blah, blah, blah, STATS…WHERE’S THE MONEY MIKE?

I feel that this game will likely be a very close run and as much as I hate backing a draw, that’s exactly what I'm going to do on this occasion. Check out the soccer betting odds on 0-0 at +800 (but don’t bet on it) 1-1 is at +550, 2-2 is at +1900, but I can’t see it being a knife edge thriller of a 3-3 even at +10,000.

At this stage, it’s a worth noting that the bookies have the USA at a wild favourite of -133 to win the CONCACAF Gold Cup, Mexico are silver-medalled at +250, Panama are the only wild bet worth backing at +700 while Honduras are the long shots at +1100.

The bookies seem to think this will be a low scoring game and they have the shortest correct score odds on 1-0 (to Mexico) followed by 1-1 and then 2-0 to Mexico (at +800).

A man, a plan, a canal…Panama!

Panama booked their place in the semis thanks to a stoning good 6-1 victory over Cuba. Both might make damn fine cigars, but the Panamanians did their brethren no favours; they may have let in the first goal 21 minutes on, but they scored and scored after that. In fact, I'm very tempted to say that Panama will NOT keep a clean sheet but may well take the game. You can get odds of +1400 on Panama winning 2-1, +4000 on 3-1 and +8000 on 4-1. By comparison, a Panamanian win at 1-0 is at +850 and 2-0 is at +1800.

It was a considerably quieter affair for Mexico as they looked to be held 0-0 by Trinidad and Tobago, up until the 84' mark when Raúl Jiménez popped up and scored the only goal of the game. Mexico winning by the same 1-0 scoreline is at +550 while a repeat of Panama’s 6-1 victory is at +50,000. What does that tell you?

The bookies reckon it’ll be a normal day at the office for Mexico as they have them winning both halves at +210, while draw / draw is at +400. A draw at the 45' with a Mexico victory is also more fancied than a Panama victory at +375, while a Panama / Panama result is at +550.

The basics have a draw at +240, a Mexico win at -105 and a Panama win at +333. Betting a bit smarter we’ve got Mexico to qualify at -275 while Panama are at +187. Therefore, using your super smart betting brain, you’ll see that I am about to suggest you back a draw, but a Mexico “win” for your soccer picks.

[gameodds]45/241623/?r-1=349-43-192/us[/gameodds]

Soccer Pick: 1-1 draw at +600 at William Hill (Mexico qualifies to the Gold Cup Final).

What do you think the upcoming Gold Cup Final will look like? Share your thoughts on our soccer forum!