It's the second leg of the quarter final match between Borussia Dortmund and Malaga and as the first leg ended 0-0. There really is everything to play for as a winner would see inside progress and a score draw would see the away side go through on away goals.
Your Humble Handicapper said it was going to be a draw, and it was!
Your Humble handicapper is very tender say that the most significant thing from the first leg was not the score but the discipline. Malaga, will be missing Weligton and Manuel Iturra, after they both picked up costly yellow cards in the first leg with Dortmund. By comparison Borussia Dortmund are set to receive a boost in the form of Mats Hummels, who is likely to be match fit for the Malaga game and will likely replace Felipe Santana in defence.
The sports books have a repeat of that score available at XXX although I think as the scheme is considerably more important we will see goals so stay away from0-0.
Some might say that home advantage is no advantage is tall as score draw with the away side going through, however your Humble handicapper rings that home advantage will be all the advantage that the German side needs to book their place in the next round.
At this stage it's fair notice that the sportsbooks have Borussia Dortmund at 4/11 to qualify while Malaga are at 12/5. It is worth noting that those soccer odds are slightly different to the straightforward win and lose the game as a home victory is at 2/5 and an away win is at 13/2.
I'm going for a clear home victory partially because the Andalusians have won just one game away in Europe this season, while Borussia have won all four of their Champions League home games this season and conceded just once in the process. It might be a case of a clean sheet… a clean sheet my kingdom for a clean sheet for the home side and therefore I wouldn't think any less of you if you bet on 1-0 to Borussia at 6/1 or 2-0 at 7/1.
If you want another reason to back the home side you should know that Borussia Dortmund are now the only side in the champions league with 100% unbeaten record.
Check out the odds on the home side winning both halves, at 10/11 and contrast that with the shortest odds on a Malaga win, offered up at 16/1 for a score of 1-0 and you'll see why you should back the German side to progress.