Okay first of all let's look at the table and see what we should be betting on. 25 games in AC Milan are sitting in third place on 44 points while Inter Milan are in fifth place just one point behind. This game is the very definition of a six pointer as whoever wins this match will put some daylight between themselves and their cross city rivals.
A draw would favour AC Milan (more) but as Lazio are sandwiched between the two sides on 44 points, three points is the bare minimum that either side would want.
Applying your Humble Handicapper’s (patented) rule of six, which states that you shouldn't consider any league position until you have factored in a possible six-point swing, seventh place Catania would actually be in the running to take third spot from Milan's grasp as they are currently on 39 points, a mere five behind the bronze medal place.
Home and Away
Inter Milan will take heart from the fact that after 12 games they put seven victories three draws and only lost twice, and the fact that AC Milan have only won four times on their travels with five draws and three defeats.
You might be very tempted on the draw at 9/5 soccer odds offered up by the bookmakers, but I think with derbies draw is far too much of a neutral bet and I'm betting on a clear winner in this game. Also in the last five meetings between the two sides there hasn't been a single draw.
In fact the last stalemate between these sides came in October 2004.
Looking at the head-to-head is further gives you a very clear suggestion as who you should put your money on this match. Inter have won the last four games straight and have stopped AC Milan scoring in three of those, that might not be such a big deal but the last three times that Inter Milan have played AC Milan at their home ground they’ve warned by the same scoreline 1-0, a repeat of that score in Inter’s favour is available at 10/1 while the reverse is at 7/1. Interestingly enough the time before last when the sides met Inter Milan also came out on top, but by considerably more impressive scoreline, 4-2. That is offered at this time at 66/1. You'd have to go all the way back to August 2011 for an AC Milan victory. A game at home and they beat Inter Milan2-1, that score is offered up by the sports books at 8/1 to happen again this coming weekend.
The Nerazzurri have the edge over the course of all Serie A fixtures between the two sides (W59 D49 L49) while Casciavit (Lombard for: Screwdrivers) (just) have the upper hand in derbies as in all competitions having won 81 games to Inter's 77.
Inter Milan have only won two of their last five games with two defeats and a draw in the mix but AC Milan have gone all out and have won four of their last five games with a draw sat right in the middle.
Bet on Milan Winning
What's more AC Milan have scored in every single one of their last five games to secure a running total of eight goals in the run, while Inter Milan have scored nine goals in their road. However, Inter have conceded 10 goals in that stretch as well.
Free Soccer Picks: 2-0 to Milan available at 11/1 with bet365 for your free soccer picks.