Soccer Picks: Hull City vs. Liverpool Premier League Tips

Nila Amerova

Friday, November 29, 2013 1:36 PM UTC

Friday, Nov. 29, 2013 1:36 PM UTC

Week 13 Premier League odds have gone to press with a lopsided market on the clash between Hull City and Liverpool. Is there any value to be had? Join us as we preview this matchup and deliver our choice soccer free picks. 

Betting on the winner

Hull City and Liverpool are enjoying contrasting fortunes in England’s top-flight league. The former struggling; the latter soaring high, second only to league leaders Arsenal. Given their polarizing seasons, it should come as no surprise that sportsbooks have gone to press with a wholly lopsided market on this tilt, installing the visiting Reds as the indisputable favourites to win outright. Bet365 is offering a Liverpool win at -163, marking one of the highest price tags on a road favourite this week in Premier League. Hull City, by contrast, are rather fanciful underdogs at soccer odds of +550 – once again, marking one of the highest price tags on a home underdog.

So is it a foregone conclusion as the market would suggest it is? Is backing a Liverpool win the smart choice for your soccer picks? According to the natural order of things it certainly would appear to be the case. Liverpool are flying high in second place, four points adrift of Arsenal on the back of a 7-3-2 record.

Closer inspection reveals road form has let them down a tad. They’ve only mustered a 2-3-1 record on the road, which includes scoring 11 goals and conceding 10. Their last win on the road came September 29 against Sunderland, only the worst outfit in Premier League this season. The only other road win was a 1-0 win over Aston Villa. Recent form has seen them go DLDWD, including the Merseyside derby that settled on a 3-3 draw to Everton.

It should be noted that Liverpool’s road schedule was no walk in the park with four Top 10 attendees in Arsenal, Everton, Newcastle United and Swansea. So a date with Hull City (4-2-6) could be a fortuitous opportunity to clinch a long overdue road win. Certainly, on paper, Liverpool are a lot better than Hull City are and it follows that it’s more likely than not that they’ll win.

Of course, this doesn’t mean Hull City will be pushovers – home form suggests otherwise in fact where they are a commendable 3-2-1 this season. What’s more they’ve kept a clean sheet in four home games and conceded just two goals across six matches. Clearly, Hull City put a premium on defence and it has paid dividends. In fact, the last meeting at the end of last season between Hull City and Liverpool ended on a scoreless draw.

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Soccer Betting Verdict: Liverpool are miles better than they were last season and the notion they’d traipse into Hull City and frolic away with three points does have traction in sports betting markets. What’s more, based on the overall account so far on the season, the Reds really should win, which makes them a good pick at -163 to win outright.

But given Hull’s solid home record and emphasis on defence, don’t be surprised if the hosts turn the odds in their favour, if not on the outright win at +550 then on the draw at least, which is on offer at +300 at Bet365. The thing is Liverpool’s issue in recent seasons has been lack of belief, amongst other things. (Losing stars like Fernando Torres didn’t help, granted). Too often in recent seasons they sat back when presented with opportunities to advance their cause into Premier League’s Big 4, instead allowing opportunities to go begging. They are sat pretty within those cushy confines at the moment but we aren’t sure whether they mean on staying there for the foreseeable. If they continue on lackadaisical form on the road they certainly won’t.

Soccer Free Picks: Draw at +300
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