Soccer Picks: Hamburg vs. Bayern Munich in Bundesliga

Nila Amerova

Thursday, May 1, 2014 7:47 PM GMT

Can Bayern Munich bounce back after crashing to defeat in midweek Champions League? Find out as we preview their upcoming clash with Hamburger SV and deliver our soccer free picks for your contemplation.

Bayern Munich’s crushing nadir
Just when the world was looking rosy for Bayern Munich, they came crashing back down to earth with a thud. A place that must seem very dark and unforgiving right about now with criticism rife and doubts permeating amongst experts and pundits alike following Bayern Munich’s crushing defeat to Real Madrid at the Allianz Arena on Tuesday night.

The Bundesliga giants are out of Champions League following a 4-0 disembowelling by Real Madrid at the Allianz Arena (5-0 on aggregate). The complete and utter capitulation was contrary to soccer betting expectations, which had Bayern Munich matched at fancied -138 to win the home leg of their semi-final tie with Real. But, happily, in line with our prediction that mainly recommended taking Real Madrid at +375 to win outright on your soccer picks.

So what went wrong? Since winning the Bundesliga title Bayern Munich seem to have lost their edge, prompting the debate over whether they won the title too soon and whether that played a hand in losing momentum. Or is it a question of coaching: finding a balance between Heynckes Bayern that won the treble and Guardiola’s Bayern that has now been found wanting?

Whatever the problem might be it’s too late to fix; that is, as far as Europe is concerned. Maybe even in domestic action where the Bundesliga title is already wrapped up. One could argue they have nothing to prove in German football. But perhaps they should, if only to quell the negative hangover following their Champions League disappointment. After all, they have the DFB Pokal final clash with Borussia Dortmund ahead and it wouldn’t do to suddenly lose the plot.


Can Hamburger SV capitalize?
Sportsbook confidence remains high in Bayern Munich as they send the titleholders into their upcoming clash with Hamburger SV as the -250 road favourites. Clearly, Bayern’s mixed form of late isn’t an issue as far as they are concerned.

Notionally, Hamburger SV have an opportunity before them to capitalize on. With Bayern distracted and disappointed, Hamburger SV could potentially turn the betting odds in their favour, which are set at a rather tempting price of +600 for the outright win and at +365 for the draw.

But that is easier said than done. Hamburger SV are mired in the relegation quagmire, in 16th place with a 7-6-19 mark on the season and 27 points. Current form consists of three straight defeats, five in their last seven fixtures home and away. What’s more, they’ve allowed eight goals in their last three games, which hints at defensive issues.

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Soccer Betting Verdict: Most expect Bayern will rise above their recent spate of poor form and disappointments and prove their worth as the favourites at -250 to win outright. But the real value soccer picks are found in markets that cover how well (or not) they will perform. Will it be a ruthless Bayern Munich taking on a hapless Hamburger SV or will it be a lacklustre one that trots to a dull victory. If sportsbook odds were any indication, the expectation is of a resounding performance. Bayern are the -120 favourites to win both halves and the totals are leaning towards the Over 2.5 at -300.

By contrast, Hamburger SV are disadvantaged across the board. Not only are they the long shots to win outright at +600 but they are also the long shots to every aspect of the game. To win both halves they are listed at whopping +1200 soccer odds while to win just the first half but lose the match they are listed at +1400. The draw-Bayern Munich result, which is matched at +333 is one of few where Hamburger SV seem be taken somewhat seriously. All told, the outlook isn’t favourable for Hamburger SV and since odds makers rarely getting it so utterly wrong, it’s probably best to take their lead and back Bayern Munich on your soccer picks.

Soccer Free Picks: Bayern to win outright at -250