Soccer Picks: Grab The Big Value On Leicester City vs. Newcastle United

Kevin Stott

Sunday, March 13, 2016 4:59 PM GMT

Let’s handicap the Leicester City vs. Newcastle United match & see if we can find some value amidst the many markets open on the soccer odds boards. 

Odds Overview
Leicester City vs. Newcastle United [Monday 20:00] (NBCSN, NBC Sports Live Extra, NBC Deportes En Vivo Extra, NBC UNIVERSO (US), Sky Sports 1/HD UK, SKY GO Extra, Sky Go UK (UK), SKY México (CRI, GUA, HON, DOM); 3 p.m. ET/12 p.m. PT): Jamie Vardy and 1st-place Leicester City (17-9-3, 52 GF-31 GA) play host to 19th-place Newcastle United (6-6-16, 28 GF-53 GA) at King Power Stadium in Leicester on Monday in the final game of English Premier League Matchday 30 and a huge contest for the hosts who sit 5 points ahead of 2nd-place Tottenham Hotspur heading into this weekend’s play.

soccer odds makers have made hosts Leicester City healthy -175 favorites here in this match with visitors Newcastle United large +525 underdogs and the Draw priced at +333 (Bet365). The Total (Goals) in this match has been set at 2½ Over -137 (Under +107, bet365) with the Both Teams To Score Prop having the ‘Yes’ priced at -137 and ‘No’ at +100 (William Hill). A couple of Props wagers for this fixture on Monday on Filbert Way: Draw No Bet: Leicester City -450, Newcastle United +320 (Ladbrokes); To Win To Nil: Leicester City +180, Newcastle United +1050 (BetVictor); and, Team To Score First: Leicester City -250, Newcastle United +210, No Goals +1200 (bet365).

 

Newcastle United FC
Even in a league with soon-to-be-relegated Aston Villa, Newcastle United (2-1-11 Road, 7 GF-32 GA) and brand spanking-new Head Coach Rafael Benítez—Head Coach Steve McClaren was fired on Friday—have the worst Road record in the EPL, with just 1 Win, 11 Losses and only 7 Goals scored in 14 Road matches. Pooh. That’s just a half-a-goal a game, sister, and no doubt Toon gets up each day and immediately thinks about its chances of being Relegated (-137, Betfred) ... and then goes back to bed for another 22 minutes.

And this is a tough scheduling spot for NUFC, with the game meaning so much to a talented team on their turf and with the better GK (the oft-unheralded Kasper Schmeichel) and Defense and the more prolific scorers in their Starting XI in Jamie Vardy (19 goals) and Riyad Mahraz (15 goals) who is dismissing recent links to Spanish La Liga giant Barcelona. But this paragraph was supposed to be about the Toon and why (and how) they will lose here and not rumors. Oh well. The Beast is everywhere these strange days.

In their last game at Home on the Geordie Shore, Newcastle United lost to AFC Bournemouth, 3-1 as Ayoze Pérez scored the Magpies only goal at the 80-minute mark to pull the hosts to within 2-1 before the Cherries put a cherry on top of their creamy victory with an Injury Time goal.

In that Loss, then-NUFC Head Coach McClaren started Robert Elliott as GK, Paul Dummett, Jamaal Lascelles, Daryl Janmaat and Steven Taylor—he had an Own Goal for AFC Bournemouth in the match but won’t be writing it off as Charity on his Taxes—on Defense, Jack Colback, Georgino Wijnaldum, Moussa Sissoko (+800 Anytime Goalscorer, Betway) and Jonjo Shelvey and Pérez in his MF with Emmanuel Riviere at Striker. Papiss Cissé (11 goals, Anytime Goalscorer +333, Coral) even wasn’t on the Bench for the Toon while Yoan Gouffran (+850 Anytime Goalscorer, Bwin) was and didn’t play, so beware with your Props bets with this side which has a new Head Coach as of this afternoon and will likely be playing Football at a different level next season. After all of this Time, Toon Army may have to pull back the troops.

 

Leicester City FC
Leicester City (8-5-1 Home, 24 GF-15 GA) and Manager Claudio Ranieri are still on top of the EPL table with 50 points and with just 1 Loss at Home, are easily the most intriguing story in the league this season. Right now, the Foxes (+120, 10Red) are playing as consistently good as they have on Matchday 1 and with the best scoring duo in the EPL in Jamie Vardy (-125 Anytime Goalscorer, Betway) and Riyad Mahraz (+225 Anytime Goalscorer, Bwin) and with other talented players like Shinji Okazaki (+190 Anytime Goalscorer, Bwin), F Leonardo Ulloa (+190 Anytime Goalscorer, Bwin), Nathan Dyer (+400 Anytime Goalscorer, Coral), Danny Drinkwater (+600 Anytime Goalscorer, Betway), Andy King (+600 Anytime Goalscorer, Coral) and, of course, GK Schmeichel, who all play with a total Team-first mentality, the Blue Army should be able to hold off the throng in April and May and shock the world by winning the Premier League.

And how cool for Leicester City and its fans from Leicestershire to be able to plan and look forward to pulling for their little Foxes in the UEFA Champions League tournament next season. You are not dreaming. Leicester City is leading the English premier league as we approach the Ides of march, Donald Trump (+333 to Become US President, Boylesports) is the leading Republican contender in the US Presidential Election and more people in the world probably read their Telephones now than all Newspapers, Magazines and Books combined.

 

Series Trends, Recent Form and Best Betting Approaches in a Good Money-Maker
In English Premier League play, Leicester City is 30-16-31 (124 GF-110 GA) lifetime against Newcastle United and the Foxes are 22-8-8 at Home against the Magpies here at King Power Stadium (73 GF-44 GA), so this has been a very Home-dominated series when these two have played when both have been up in England’s top flight of Soccer. Leicester City has won the L2 meetings by a 3-0 scoreline but NUFC went an unbeaten 4-3-0 in the previous 7 meeting before the Foxes re-emergence to and in the EPL. Leicester City is 33-18-38 (143 GF-141 GA) overall in all competitions versus the Toon, so these two have mathematically played it fairly even through the years with the game’s site seeming to hold much weight.

When these two met earlier this season on the Geordie Shore, Leicester City won, 3-0 as Foxes GK Schmeichel registered a Clean Sheet and the sensational Vardy opened the scoring by tallying in his record-tying (Ruud van Nistelrooy) 10th straight Premier League match before his Leicester City teammates Ulloa and Okazaki added scores of their own for the visitors back on Nov. 21 on Matchday 13. Newcastle United’s current Form Guide resembles a (green) Grape which has fallen into a string of (red) Cherries and feels very out of place—the Green Grape was a Home Win over West Bromwich Albion—while Leicester City’s Form Guide looks like a string of (green) Grapes interrupted by a rude, (red) cherry. The Yin and the Yang of it all, brother.

The Foxes are currently #2 in the EPL in Form with 13 of a possible 18 points earned in their L6 matches while the Magpies are 17th with only 3 points earned in their L6 games and nothing but L’s (LLLLLL) on the Road. So who do you like? Yeah, me too as it’s hard to get pumped about a team with just 7 goals on the Road as the Spring pollen already starts to permeate the air.

And some other things before yours truly fall into an orange peanut M&M coma: Attacking this match on the Asian Handicap may be a good idea for some and if you are going to wager on Leicester City, maybe lock in now with the fare prices as the vast majority of the General Public and Sharps may be backing the Foxes Monday after the dust has all cleared from another busy sports weekend.

At (a current Oddschecker screen market-low) price of -153 (bet365), this line could potentially go up another 30 cents or more between now (Thursday) and kick off on Monday. And this one will get much action with it being the lone match of the day on Monday and with it being nationally televised in both the US and the UK. and if you don’t want to bet on this and watch, that’s fair too as what Ranieri and this Leicester City club has done this EPL season is absolutely historical and may never be done again. Ever. See my soccer pick for this game below. 

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PREDICTED FINAL SCORE: Leicester City 3 Newcastle United 0
EPL MONDAY PICKS: Leicester City -153, Leicester City -1 +105 Asian Handicap
Best Line Offered: at 5Dimes