Soccer Picks Fiorentina vs. Lazio

Nila Amerova

Thursday, February 27, 2014 4:46 PM GMT

Fiorentina look to get back on the winning track when they host Lazio in Serie A week 26. Join us as we breakdown this clash and deliver our soccer betting verdict, complete with free soccer picks.

Fiorentina have the market edge

Fiorentina go into their upcoming date with Lazio at the slim advantage, tipped at -110 to win outright or thereabouts across sportsbooks. But the Viola are without a win in their last two fixtures, a stretch of form that has allowed Napoli (third in the table) to pull ahead by six points following a win and a draw in their last two matches, and Internazionale (fifth in the table) to close the gap to just five points. Fiorentina, sat fourth in the table, definitely have breathing room for the time being with Inter hovering five points away, but, at the same time, they can’t afford any mishaps. Another setback could see Napoli (taking on Livorno in week 26 Serie A betting) pull further ahead, not to mention offer Inter the opportunity to close the gap.

So you could say there is a lot riding on the outcome of this match, the premium on the win high. Fortunately, Fiorentina, enjoying a solid season with 13-6-6 mark, boast a commendable record at home that stands at 7-3-2 and is highlighted by 26 goals scored and 17 conceded. What’s more, they’ve only suffered one loss at home since the second half of the season kicked off. Albeit it was their last home affair and against Inter, just one of their rivals in the table for a top three finish; that is, incidentally, a futures betting market where Fiorentina are still in the running but at +500 soccer odds they have all to do to come through. Roma and Napoli have this market cornered at -8000 and -800 futures odds while Inter Milan rounds out this market at staggering +2000 soccer odds.

In any event, Fiorentina have only lost two matches at home and that augurs well for their clash with Lazio and lends their favourable soccer odds to win this match value. Since the New Year, Fiorentina have won gone 2-1-1 at home in Serie A. Importantly, both victories were clean sheets. The draw to Genoa was a goal feast with both sides settling on three goals each.

Lazio at the disadvantage

Lazio go into their clash with Fiorentina tipped at the disadvantage across sportsbooks. Bet365 offers Lazio at +300 soccer odds while listing the draw similarly long at +240 soccer odds.

Lazio are sat pretty in tenth place in Serie A with a 9-8-8 mark and 35 points. Unlike the Premier League where clubs the bottom half of the table are crammed between seven points, Serie A is a bit more spaced out with Lazio 15 points clear of the drop zone. The best bit, though, the difference between seventh place and tenth place is just two points. Lazio therefore can afford higher ambitions: AC Milan (9th) are level on 35 points while Torino (8th) are on 36 points. Parma (7th) meanwhile are on 37 points.

Having said that in order for Lazio to capitalise on the opportunity that exists they’d need to transcend their road record, which currently is nothing to write home about at 2-5-6. In fact, the two victories were clinched in the second half of the season – 3-2 over Udinese on January 19 and 2-0 over Chievo on February 2.

Lazio are 2-1-1 on the road in the New Year, which undoubtedly is a drastic improvement to their unforgettable road output of the first half of the season but is it a sign of a complete and utter turn around? Keep in mind their last trek resulted in a 3-1 defeat to relegation bound Catania.

Soccer Betting Verdict: To all intents and purposes, this match is a home banker. Fiorentina at -110 to win outright should prove to be the smart soccer pick. Granted, Lazio have enjoyed a brief upturn in form on the road. If it’s a sign of an earnest turnaround or just a fluke however is debatable. Only, time will tell. Short of anything material to base a soccer pick on the upset by Lazio, you have to consider backing Fiorentina the only substantial option.

Soccer Free Picks: Fiorentina at -110 to win outright

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