Soccer Picks: FC Porto vs. Austria Vienna

Nila Amerova

Monday, November 25, 2013 8:10 PM UTC

Monday, Nov. 25, 2013 8:10 PM UTC

FC Porto are desperate to revive their qualifying hopes at the expense of Austria Vienna when they collide on match day 5. Join us as we breakdown this clash and deliver soccer free picks for your consideration.

FC Porto must-win

FC Porto are faced with a must-win match if they hope to revive their qualification ambitions in Europe’s top-flight competition. If sportsbooks are to be taken at face value, the prognosis is good as bookies send the Portuguese into their clash on hefty -700 soccer odds to win outright. A market stance incidentally that stands in stark contrast to their home output thus far in the competition.

FC Porto have been pointless at home having lost to both Atletico Madrid and Zenit St. Petersburg, although the latter result should be taken with reservation as it was a 10-man Porto that succumbed to the Russian side late in the game. This is their last chance to take points at home, and according to bookies their best with Austria Vienna listed at the significant disadvantage at +2200.

FC Porto are currently third in the competition with a 1-1-2 mark. A win over Austria Vienna and a defeat by Zenit to Atletico would see them leap frog into second place. To do so however FC Porto will have to revive an almost non-existent offense that has produced just three goals in four matches. That would also take the pressure off defence, which has been rather exceptional and tested sorely into allowing only four goals.  

Austria Vienna props up Group G currently with just a point through four rounds of Champions League action. Their lone point coming at the expense of Zenit on the away when they forced a scoreless draw on the Russians in St. Petersburg.

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FC Porto vs. Austria Vienna betting tips and picks:

All told, Austria Vienna is the quintessential long shot bet for the win at +2200 in Lisbon. It would take a combination of events and lots of luck for the competition’s newcomers to pull off a meaningful result such as a win.

If you are looking to back a victory then an FC Porto win is surely the only reasonable soccer pick in this match. But at -700 soccer odds it promises very little return on your investment. Therefore sports bettors will need to look at periphery markets with which to pad their pockets. Towards that end, we’ve pulled together some of the odds we think offer the best value for your soccer picks.

First up, on the totals sportsbooks favour the Over 2.5 at -200 but we feel there is scope for better value in the Under 2.5 at +150. Granted, Austria Vienna have conceded eight goals in the competition without scoring once. But when you consider that seven of those came against Atletico’s lightening offense, and FC Porto were responsible for the only other goal, then you get the sense of a rather solid defence that has had the measure of the rest of the field save for the Spaniards. Let’s also not forget FC Porto’s problems in the scoring department as well. 

In the double result market there are several approaches to consider. Bookies favour once again a commanding FC Porto performance and list the Portuguese winning both halves at -188. Given what is at stake for them here that would be the desired result. However, sticking with the notion of a solid Austrian defence, a draw-FC Porto win might be the better option at +260 at Bet365. The idea being that this will be a nervy cagey affair, with both sides playing not to lose rather to win it hands down. In such a scenario often a game is decided by a lone goal. And that takes us neatly into the final market that we fancy in terms of an FC Porto win and that is the winning margin, which offers another alternative: that is FC Porto to win by a goal, which is trading at +260.

Now for the adventurous soccer bettor there is another angle for profit to consider; that is, to bank on the Austrians defensive abilities. After all, the last time the pair met the match resulted in a dubious 1-0 win. Moreover, Austria Vienna managed a scoreless draw to Zenit St. Petersburg on the road as well.

Perhaps odds makers are severely underestimating the Austrians and we should pause for thought. Taking the draw result here could prove to be the savvy soccer pick after all, an outcome that is trading at tempting +800 soccer odds at Bet365. And together with a draw-draw double result at +1000 and we’d have a nice payout if all comes to fruition. Or are we all too eagerly swayed by price tags?

Soccer Picks: Draw at +800; Under 2.5 at +150

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