Soccer Picks: Champions League Finals Tips & Predictions

Nila Amerova

Wednesday, May 22, 2013 1:09 PM UTC

Wednesday, May. 22, 2013 1:09 PM UTC

Free soccer picks and predictions for the Champions League Finals matchup between Bayern Munich and Borussia Dortmund. Where do we believe that the best soccer betting value lies in this battle?

As organizers get Wembley Stadium all done up for the first-all German Champions League final between Bayern Munich and Borussia Dortmund, odds makers have been just as busy doing up the markets with a wide assortment of odds across the board, from futures markets to straight up match-betting markets and props. Join us as we preview some of the best odds and deliver soccer picks for your consideration.

Bayern Munich the hot favourites to win outright

Bayern Munich are the hot favourites across all platforms to win the coveted top-flight European trophy, tipped at -250 to win outright at Bet365, which, incidentally is a tad higher from last week’s price of -225.

Bayern wasn’t the top favourite when the competition first kicked off despite finishing runners-up last year to Chelsea. And going into the knockout stages, after finishing top of Group F with a 4-1-1 mark, they were listed third behind the Spanish tandem of Barcelona and Real Madrid at +650 to win it all. Indeed, soccer bettors who made Bayern their UEFA Champions League pick to win it all then have to be well pleased right now!  

Bayern’s road to the final wasn’t easy by any stretch of the imagination with top clubs such as Arsenal, Juventus and Barcelona strewn in their way. Nonetheless, Bayern proved up for the challenge, the stronger in almost each and every tie – the only exception, the dramatic tie against Arsenal in the R16 that ended 3-3 on aggregate and that they only won by virtue of away goals. In fact, Arsenal were the better team in the second leg and the Gunners came very close to ending Bayern’s run but for the clock running out them.

Since that close call however Bayern have dominated the opposition, dismantling both Serie A champions Juventus and La Liga champions Barcelona mercilessly all the while keeping a clean sheet. They beat Juventus 4-0 on aggregate and Barcelona by a staggering 7-0 on aggregate!

Take a look at Mike Richardson's Champions League Final Tips & Picks.

Borussia Dortmund the severe underdogs yet again

Few had Borussia Dortmund penciled into the bracket as a finalist when the top-flight European competition got underway but by the time the knockout stages rolled around, and Borussia Dortmund was soaring high atop of Group D, above the popular pick Real Madrid, some began to take stock of their value. Heck, they were included in the top favourites to win outright after all – odds makers had Borussia listed at futures odds of +700 to win it all. Odds that were significantly better than those awarded to Juventus (+1000) and Manchester United (+1200) for example.

Borussia Dortmund enter the final as the decided underdogs, listed at +188 to win outright, a price that has moved up slightly since last week’s +175.

Compared to Bayern’s road, Borussia Dortmund had a less precarious trek into the final. Well, at least in the first two knockout rounds with Shakhtar Donetsk and Malaga standing in their way. In the R16, they were convincing against the Ukrainians beating them 5-2 on aggregate. Malaga put up a fight though and Borussia Dortmund only narrowly advanced with a 3-2 aggregate.

Where Borussia Dortmund really lit up was in the semi-final stage against Real Madrid. It’s not just that nobody could have predicted a Borussia Dortmund win but that few could have predicted how convincing it would be. Borussia burst out of the gates in the first leg and raced to a 4-1 victory, capitalizing on home ground advantage, and turned the tie on its head. From that point on, Real was playing catch up, a game they never were good at and, sure enough, it proved to be the case. They failed to close the gap and Borussia advanced with a 4-3 aggregate.

Match Betting Preview

Naturally, in keeping with the futures market, the match betting market reveals Bayern Munich as the hot favourites and Borussia Dortmund as the puppies. And across all platforms, the prices vary little with Bayern tipped at -133 at Bet365 and at -138 at William Hill. Borussia Dortmund, by and large, is found at +350 across all platforms right now, and the draw can be found hovering between +275 and +280.

Bayern Munich won the Bundesliga title this year by a country mile. Currently, they are 22-points ahead of their nearest rivals Borussia Dortmund with a 28-4-1 mark on the season. They go into their last week of Bundesliga action riding a 13-game undefeated streak across all competitions. Some of their victories during this run were lopsided, to name a few: a 9-2 victory over Hamburg SV and a 6-1 victory over Wolfsburg and Hannover 96, respectively.   

Borussia Dortmund takes a 19-9-5 mark into its last turn around the Bundesliga. Recent form has seen a slight dip with a defeat to Real Madrid in the second leg followed by back-to-back draws in Bundesliga – a happenstance that ended their six-game winning streak across all competitions.

Interesting to note, one of the aforementioned draws was a 1-1 draw at home to Bayern Munich, although it’s hard to gage that result when many regulars such as Franck Ribery, Arjen Robben or Thomas Muller were left out of the proceedings. The reverse fixture went 1-0 to Bayern Munich. To date, Borussia Dortmund’s best result against Bayern was a 5-2 victory in DFB Pokal, last year.


Soccer Betting Verdict: The way Bayern Munich has been playing of late both in domestic and European action makes it hard to imagine how Borussia Dortmund would stop them. If Barcelona couldn’t stop the juggernaut, how is Borussia Dortmund to do it? Undoubtedly, that and their experience at this stage of the Champions League makes Bayern Munich the better play and the most popular amongst the betting public.

But none of this means that Borussia Dortmund can’t win. Anything can happen after all in the beautiful game and they proved that when they beat Real Madrid. In some ways, beating Real was tougher than it’ll ever be to beat Bayern. Keep in mind, Borussia Dortmund know Bayern Munich very well, what with the pair hanging out in Bundesliga. This familiarity makes this a familiar fixture. A domestic fixture just on the biggest stage of all. So don’t go writing off the underdogs just yet.

Soccer Free Picks: Borussia Dortmund to win outright.
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