Soccer Picks: Catania vs. AC Milan Serie A Tips

Nila Amerova

Friday, November 29, 2013 1:32 PM GMT

Friday, Nov. 29, 2013 1:32 PM GMT

Sportsbooks have released a whole slew of odds on Serie A action this weekend, including the tilt between Catania and AC Milan. Where is the value to be had? Find out as we rundown through the odds. 

AC Milan are odds on favourites on the road

The last time AC Milan recorded a win in Serie A was on October 19 when they beat Udinese 1-0 at home. The last time they recorded a win on the road was May 19 (that’s last season, by the way) when they beat Sienna 2-1. Do you get the sense of a trend here?

You should and it doesn’t read well for the Rossoneri. To put it bluntly: AC Milan can’t seem to buy a win no matter how hard they try. They are abysmally off form this season, wholly underachieving despite their lofty standards, indisputable quality and bevy of talent.

So AC Milan, all of a sudden, as the odds-on favourites across sportsbooks ahead of week 14 Serie A betting is a bit perplexing wouldn’t you say. What are the odds makers on about?

Well, it’s not for us to presume to know what they are thinking. What we do know is that AC Milan is a reputable big club and reputations that precede certain clubs can shape market perceptions. As well, Catania’s position – smack bottom and propping up the league – compared to AC Milan’s seemingly better mid-table position is rather conspicuous and it might go further towards explaining this market cast call.

But upon closer inspection crucial facts come to light that sports bettors need to carefully consider before determining any soccer picks.

First of all, there really isn’t a whole lot of difference between Catania’s 20th position thanks to a 2-3-8 record and just 9 points through 13 laps of Serie A and AC Milan’s 13th position on the back of a 3-5-5 record and just 14 points. As you can see, it amounts to just five points. It’s not much to hang your hat on admittedly, if you are inclined towards AC Milan here.

Let’s also keep in mind that AC Milan have yet to win on the road this season. The best they’ve managed was a draw, which they magically pulled off three times having gone 0-3-3 in six outings. And if that isn’t disappointing enough, those missed opportunities came against subpar lightweights in the league. And as recently as Chievo, a side that ranked 20th then (incidentally, just as Catania is now). The only club of note they’ve had the pleasure of visiting during this stretch was Juventus, against which they lost 3-2.

On the flipside, Catania have a delightfully surprising home record that boasts just one defeat in six rounds. Yet sportsbooks are taking no stock of it, sending them into this clash at the huge disadvantage, at whopping +375 soccer odds to win outright.

Overall, they are 2-3-1 at home with the lone defeat coming to Internazionale – seeing that Inter are fourth in the table, it’s an understandable defeat that one can’t really hold against them. The encouraging accounts include the win over Udinese and both draws to Genoa and Parma.

What’s more Catania play well within themselves at home, they defend stoically and only take calculated risks on attack. Overall, they’ve scored four goals and conceded four goals, although the goals against number is skewed by the 3-0 defeat to Inter Milan. Take away those three goals, Catania have in fact only conceded once in five home matches. That’s rather impressive wouldn’t you say?  

So when put into such context the only question begging: should AC Milan be the odds-on-favourite? To put it another way: think you they are a worthwhile soccer pick?

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Soccer Betting Verdict: For our money, AC Milan are just too steep. Besides, they seem to have lost the plot lately. It might not be a permanent state of affairs; they do have enough quality to turn things around at any point in time. But right now, based on current form and overall plight, they don’t appear to be the smart pick. Rather Catania on the draw at +260 or the home win at +375 at Bet36 would appear of much better value for your soccer picks. One or the other certainly would be our recommendation for this match.

Soccer Free Picks: Catania to win outright at +375 or draw at +260
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