Soccer Picks: Bundesliga Betting Futures

Nila Amerova

Friday, March 14, 2014 7:37 PM UTC

Friday, Mar. 14, 2014 7:37 PM UTC

The book on the Bundesliga title race is now officially closed; Bayern Munich have won the title by a country mile. Only futures betting odds on the battle for European spots and top-flight survival are still open. So join us as we examine these and deliver our soccer-betting verdict.

Bayern Munich win the title

For a second consecutive season Bayern Munich have won the Bundesliga title, a feat that was matched across sportsbooks at 9/2 (or thereabouts) at the start of the season. Although few would have expected the title to be decided this early in the season with Bayern Munich ahead by 20 points with ten matches still left to play and a potential of a maximum of 30 points up for grabs.

To Finish Top 4

The race for a Top 4 finish in Bundesliga is heating up with seven teams in play according to odds makers. Borussia Dortmund, currently in second place with a 15-3-6 mark and 48 points – would appear to have one of the remaining three spots practically sewn up at -5000 futures betting odds. But this market stance has more to do with their perceived quality rather than any clear edge over their rivals as they only have a four-point edge over third-placed Bayer Leverkusen and fourth-placed Schalke 04, both tipped at conspicuously shorter -400 future betting odds.

Still a Top 4 without Borussia Dortmund, last year’s runners up in Champions League and two-time Bundesliga Champions (2010-2011 and 2011-2012) is almost unthinkable. It would require a serious upsurge in form by either Bayer Leverkusen and Schalke 04, not to mention Wolfsburg (+200), Augsburg (+1200), Mainz 05 (+1400), Borussia M’gladbach (+1400)  and Hertha Berlin (+2500) as well to force such a major reshuffle in the Bundesliga table at this late vantage point. Just a quick glance at the prices attached to any one of these clubs reveals just how much of a long shot soccer pick they are individually.

To Be Relegated

Augsburg were one of several outright favourites for relegation at the start of the season. Tale told they defied early futures betting markets, beyond their wildest dreams and odds makers’ expectations. Sat in sixth place, remarkably they are mired in the battle for a Top 4 Finish instead of the battle for survival.

Meanwhile, Eintracht Braunschweig and Nurnberg, who completed the Top 3 favourites for relegation at the start of the season, seem to have fulfilled those expectations or very nearly so as in the case of the latter which is hovering just above the drop one, three points clear. Eintracht Braunschweig prop up the league with a 4-5-15 mark and 17 points through 24 laps. With ten games left they still could change their Bundesliga fortune but it would mean a sudden turnaround on form, something that really doesn’t appear to be a threat as they are tipped as the whopping favourites at -1600 at Bet365 to be demoted by season end.

SC Freiburg (+100), Hamburg (+138) and VFB Stuttgart (+150) – the latter somewhat surprising as Stuttgart were dubbed amongst the early betting favourites for a top 4 finish at 6/1are all in danger of demotion. Also in the mix are Werder Bremen (+2000), Eintracht Frankfurt and Hannover 96 (both matched at +1400), but the latter triplet are serious long shots to dropout especially with signs that all are picking up their form down the stretch.

Soccer Free Picks: The real value soccer picks are Schalke 04 at -400 to finish top 4 and Stuttgart at +150 to be relegated.

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