Soccer Picks: Brazil vs. Mexico in Confederations Cup

Nila Amerova

Monday, June 17, 2013 7:34 PM GMT

Brazil and Mexico face off in game 2 of Group A Confederations Cup action. Brazil looks to carry the momentum following a big win over Japan while Mexico are desperate to turn things around.

Find out what odds the bookies have on tap and where the best sports betting value is to be had.

Brazil taking it seriously

FIFA Confederations Cup is the closest thing to a competitive environment Luiz Felipe Scolari and his men are going to enjoy before next summer’s World Cup and undoubtedly they are taking this fiesta of champions seriously. This is Brazil’s dress rehearsal for 2014 and expectations are high amongst fans and pundits alike, evidenced by their +138 odds to win outright at Bet365. Only Spain (now co-favourites at +138 to win it all) strikes a more attractive pose on paper. 

In the lead up to Confederations Cup, wins were clearly eluding the Seleção and the pressure was mounting on Scolari to work out a winning formula. However, now that they have won back-to-back matches – a 3-0 win over France in friendly action and a 3-0 win over Japan to open Confederations Cup – it would appear they have stumbled upon something.

Strictly speaking, Brazil beating a lesser French side (Didier Deschamps fielded a crop of young players) and Group A minnows Japan can’t be called impressive. It’s not as if they ran into top teams. What is impressive though is the goal frenzy they are enjoying that suggests the team (more specifically, offense) is finally clicking into place. Something that couldn’t have happened at a better time because the competition is only going to get tougher now with Mexico looming next followed by serious contenders Italy.

Going into their next match, Brazil are the hot favourites at -275 to win outright. The main objective for them will be to continue the momentum and secure the win. Anything less than a win (draw is listed at +375) could potentially be costly as Italy looms down the road – who, if first round of action is anything to go by, could make it a touch trickier for Brazil to win group A.

Mexico outlook grim

Mexico were rather unimpressive in their opening act against Italy and as a result the outlook for them in Confederations Cup is grim indeed. For starters, their odds to win the competition have slipped from +1200 to a whopping +3300 at Bet365. And as far as their second match goes, they are the massive underdogs at +750 to win.

Mexico played nine games in the lead up to Confederations Cup and managed only one victory, a dubious 1-0 win over Jamaica, and eight draws. Their last two World Cup qualifiers ended in scoreless stalemates, thrusting their campaign for 2014 Brazil into serious doubt, although Jose Manuel de la Torre is adamantly maintaining otherwise.  

Clearly, scoring has been a problem for El Tricolor. It’s non-existent right now and that is saying something when the team boasts one of the best goal scorers in the game in Chicharito. The only goal they managed against Italy came off a penalty, justified though it was it certainly doesn’t spell an end to their scoring drought.

Italy played Mexico successfully. They controlled the middle and almost 60% possession. They forced the Mexicans to the sidelines, rendered their offense a mute point and forced midfielders to play a secondary defending role. The Italians harassed the Mexicans senseless that it’s a credit to their defending prowess they lost by just a goal.

Soccer Betting Verdict: Mexico’s world cup campaign is floundering, they are behind in Confederations Cup action, offense is non-existent and de la Torre and his men are in the hot seat. To take on hosts Brazil with all this agro and pressure is a tall order that makes a Mexico win seem rather unlikely.  More likely than not Brazil to win at -275 is the correct choice for your soccer picks.

The value picks: El Tri have an outstanding defense record but the same can’t be said on the attack. A slew of stalemates tell the story. Brazil’s attacking prowess is in no doubt but even they’ll find it challenging to break through Mexico’s Fort Knox. So we’re plumping for a low scoring affair of Under 2.5 at +120 at Bet365. Score line picks are equally tempting and in tune to the low goal tally we expect are a 1-0 or 2-0 score line at +600 at Bet365.

Soccer Picks: Brazil to win 2-0