Soccer Picks: Bet 'Over' in Roma vs. Palermo

Nikki Adams

Saturday, January 17, 2015 6:56 PM GMT

Saturday, Jan. 17, 2015 6:56 PM GMT

Roma descends on Palermo in week 19 of Serie A betting, a game that is poised to be a veritable scoring fest that soccer betting fans should spot. Back goals on your soccer picks when Palermo and Roma collide.

Roma The Tempting Road Faves
Roma come into this weekend's fixture with Palermo having played better on their travels than at home in recent weeks, an auspicious run of form away from the impressive Olimpico in the nation's capital that underscores Giallorossi's favourable +115 soccer odds to win outright.

Overall, Rudi Garcia's boys are riding an eight-game undefeated streak in Serie A – five wins and three draws. On the road, form is on the up in recent weeks with a solid three-game winning streak, which includes wins over Atalanta, Genoa and Udinese – all deemed winnable games on paper. Garcia's side has actually lost just two road games (5-1-2 away record). Fittingly, only to Scudetto rivals Juventus and Napoli, the latter of which was their most recent loss on the road, a 2-0 defeat way back in November. Mid-table Palermo (10th) presents another notionally winnable game for Garcia's side, and they'll certainly look to bank all three points in Sicily on Saturday.

Roma are sat in second place in the table behind a 12-4-2 mark and 40 points, three points adrift of Juventus. Having been eliminated from Champions League last month (a loss to Man City sealed their fate and sent them into Europa League), Roma's best shot at top-tier glory is the domestic title. Keeping pace with Juventus is going to be paramount towards that goal.


Palermo The Tempting Home Underdogs
Palermo are sat tenth in Serie A with a 6-7-5 mark and 25 points. While the Serie B champions last season occupy a mid-table position, their survival in Italy's top flight is in no way certain. On the one hand, the 18-point gap between Palermo and Juventus (43 points) serves to highlight the disparity in depth and quality in Italy's top flight. On the other, they are only 8-points clear of 17th-placed Atalanta and the drop into second-tier ignominy.

Palermo's main objective is league survival this season. Towards that goal, they rely mostly on home form (5-3-1) rather than road form (1-4-4). Indeed, after recording their fourth road loss this season, a 4-3 defeat in Fiorentina in week 18 Serie A betting, the Rosanero will be glad to be back on home turf for this stern test. They are undefeated in their last six games at Stadio Renzo Barbera and ride a three-game winning streak with wins over Parma, Sassuolo and Cagliari into this clash with Giallorossi. Not that the many online sportsbooks seem to be taking any stock of that positive run of home form though, matched as the home underdogs at +260 to win straight up.


Soccer Betting Verdict: Back Goals On Your Soccer Picks
Bookmakers have rolled out a rather lopsided soccer betting market, favouring the travelling Giallorossi over the hosts. That's partly down to the stigma of being a "promoted side." Mostly though, it's down to the top-notch quality of the visitors from the nation's capital. In any event, it's a reasonable outlook for this game.

Undoubtedly, Roma is the choice soccer pick to win in most soccer betting circles and by the odds, at +115 soccer odds, there's value in it as well. A win-win, as they say. That being said, Palermo isn't a side that soccer bettors should dismiss out of hand just because odds makers aren't giving them their due. Palermo won their last home meeting with Roma 2-0 two seasons ago, which will be a result that they'll look to draw confidence from over and above their current home form. The clash with AS Roma may not be derby, but there's still some satisfaction in playing up to one of the standards in Italian football, if not outright winning. To put in other words: the soccer odds may be stacked against them but the Rosanero have as much stake in the three points as Giallorossi do.

That's why for our money, we feel the best soccer picks are found in the goal scoring markets. Palermo play an entertaining, free-flowing attacking football, nowhere more so evinced than in their score tally for the season (netting 30 goals and conceding 30 through 18 games). On average, they are scoring 1.7 goals per game and conceding in equal measure. Surprisingly, the Over 2.5 for this game is trading at a rather lowly -105.

Just in their last three games, the total has gone well over 2.5 in Palermo's games: 4-3 loss to Fiorentina, 5-0 win over Cagliari and 3-3 draw to Atalanta all went OVER 4.5 at the very least and two went OVER 5.5. Now, Roma are notorious for their solid defending; they've only conceded 13 goals this season altogether, and in their last three games they've scored just 3 goals while conceding only 2. But if Palermo dictates the pace for this game and attacks relentlessly. Then this game could break open and serve up a veritable scoring feast. The Over 2.5 is the safer option for our soccer picks at -105, but the Over 3.5 at William Hill at +240 is an attractive alternative.

Free Soccer Picks: Over 2.5 at -105 or Over 3.5 at +240

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