Soccer Picks: Bayern vs. Chelsea UEFA Super Cup Odds Preview

Nila Amerova

Sunday, August 25, 2013 2:36 PM GMT

Sunday, Aug. 25, 2013 2:36 PM GMT

It's the Champions vs. Europa league winners in a pulse-pounding battle on the pitch. Join us as we preview this highly-anticipated clash set to kick off at Eden Arena in Prague on August 30th.


While both these sides head into UEFA Super Cup as respective top and second-tier European Champions and boasting good form as well, Bayern Munich have the betting edge over Chelsea in football betting

Bayern Munich seeks revenge for UEFA Champions League final defeat

Last year, the two clubs met in an epic UEFA Champions League final where Chelsea stunned Bayern Munich in the German club’s own stadium a dramatic penalty shootout. Colour the Bundesliga giants shocked then, including their thousands fans that witnessed the heartbreaking defeat.

Fifteen months later, the pair is set to reprise that clash in UEFA Super Cup action, a one-match competition that pits Champions League winners Bayern Munich against Europa League winners Chelsea. This time however Bayern Munich has the firm market blessing as well as popular backing towards victory. Several sportsbooks are offering a Bayern Munich match win at -125 but an outright title victory (to lift trophy) in the futures market is tipped at -250 at Bet365 and at -200 at William Hill.

Aside from already being a strong side Bayern Munich has done several key things to add weight to their soccer odds. Primarily, the acquisition of Pep Guardiola—former Barcelona coach whose pedigree is impeccable and who took a year off football after stepping down as the manager of the Catalan club. Guardiola is taking his new assignment very seriously – after all, he has big shoes to fill. (Jupp Heynckes only pulled off the treble last year.) In his first interview, the Spaniard already impressed with his command of the German language. It might seem like a small thing to learn German but when the Bundesliga is built largely on homegrown talent rather than imported talent, being able to communicate effectively takes on a new significance. Gaining the respect of a team that transcends name and resumes and goes towards character and credibility is huge. This is very important for Bayern Munich in their title defence campaigns this season.

Another move to underscore Bayern’s odds is the signing of star Mario Gotze, who they snagged from under Borussia Dortmund just before the Champions League final earlier this summer. High hopes precede the German footballer. Robert Lewandowski is another Dortmund treasure that is being linked to Bayern Munich, a transfer that if successful would surely strengthen Bayern’s odds further.

Chelsea faces a strong and determined Bayern Munich

It’s a tall order for Chelsea in the clash of European titans, more so than the actual odds would suggest. The Blues are tipped as the +300 underdogs at William Hill and at an even larger +350 at Bet365 to beat Bayern Munich. To lift the trophy, they are a +150 futures bet at William Hill and a +200 futures bet at Bet365.

The main question the odds raise is whether there is a realistic chance Chelsea would mastermind yet another shock win over Bayern Munich. The odds promise value certainly, but is it quantifiable?

Chelsea has acquired the services of Jose Mourinho who pulled off the treble while at the helm of Inter Milan but who also had a rather unsuccessful stint at the helm of Real Madrid when you compare those two last assignments. So while there is no doubt of his pedigree it remains to be seen whether the “Happy One” can give Chelsea fans something to grin about.

In terms of shoring up his team with talent, so far Chelsea hasn’t made a splash in the summer transfer window to suggest it has sufficient fortification to defend against Bayern. Though they did snag midfielder Andre Schurrle from Bayer Leverkusen, bigger signings such as Edison Cavani, Rooney or Suarez would serve them much better in this market.

Salient markets

Outside of the main markets, other salient markets worth mentioning for this matchup is the draw, after all, they drew the last time they met in the Champs final before going to penalties. The draw is found at +260 or thereabouts across most platforms. Curious to note a 1-1 draw is trading the shortest at +550.

Odds makers seem to favour a 1-0, 2-0 or 3-1 win by Bayern Munich best, listing those options at +700, +800 and +750, respectively. Chelsea wins by the same score are rather long shot bets according to the same odds makers, upwards of +1000 in all cases.

Football Betting Verdict: Right now, the smart sports pick appears to be Bayern Munich to win outright hands down. However, with odds as high as -250 for the win, football fans will need some added plays to up the value on this clash. And towards that end we found the best value in the prop markets. We like Bayern to win but we also like Chelsea to score – they have enough quality to do so, surely? –and that’s why were plumping down to a 3-1 win at +750. This means a play on the Over 2.5 at -125 is also a good option.  

Soccer Free Pick: Bayern Munich to win 3-1

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