Soccer Picks: Bayern Munich vs. Chelsea in 2013 UEFA Super Cup

Nila Amerova

Wednesday, August 28, 2013 9:34 PM GMT

Wednesday, Aug. 28, 2013 9:34 PM GMT

The reigning Champions League and Europa League Cup holders are set to collide in the UEFA Super Cup at the weekend, in a match that is highly anticipated by soccer fans worldwide. Will it live up to the hype or will it fall short of the mark? Join us as we preview the latest soccer odds and deliver our picks for your betting thrills.


Bayern Munich seek revenge

The last time the pair met was in the 2012 Champions League final in Munich, when Chelsea upset the hosts to win their first European title. Didier Drogba was the hero of the night, scoring the equalizer late in the match and then the winning penalty kick that clinched the historic victory.

A lot has changed since then. Over 15 months, both teams have experienced many changes, all positive for Bayern Munich who scaled European top-flight soccer and accomplished the treble. As such, Bayern Munich earned the right to be the favourites for this clash.

Last month, when we previewed the early odds on the Super Cup, Bayern Munich were installed as the firm favourites at -125 to win the match and at -250 to lift the trophy with Bet365 and at -200 to lift the trophy at William Hill.

Today, just a few days before the much-anticipated fixture kicks off at Eden Arena in Prague, there is a conspicuous discrepancy (though minimal worthwhile to note) where Bayern Munich’s odds are concerned. In the match win market, their soccer odds have improved to -138 at Bet365 but dropped to -118 at William Hill. On the flipside, odds on lifting the trophy have improved across the board to -275 at Bet365 and to -225 at William Hill.

Aside from the obvious revenge narrative and the impetus the sentiment brings to a match, what else recommends Bayern on the win? Prior to the start of the soccer season we looked at the Pep Guardiola factor as well as some of the changes to the roster that could make a positive impact. Now that the Bundesliga season is actually underway, can we still say the same or have things changed?

Well, Bayern Munich failed at the first time of asking, the first attempt at silverware this season when they lost to Borussia Dortmund 4-2 in Bundesliga Super Cup action. Naturally, the result was seen as a mark against Guardiola’s tenure as well.

More recently, Bayern Munich settled on a draw with Freiburg in domestic action; marking another blemish on their record. No longer perfect with a 3-1-0 mark in Bundesliga action despite sitting lotus atop the table. Only a point separates them from Borussia Dortmund, Bayern Leverkusen and Mainz 05 in the table, a gap all three could potentially close at the weekend and, thereby, force Bayern Munich down to fourth place.

Clearly, Bayern isn’t invincible but perspective hasn’t been affected at all. They are still considered the favourites to win this match in the markets and the smart choice for our soccer picks.

Adding weight to that notion is the fact that Chelsea doesn’t strike a convincing pose. Three laps into the Premier League season, they straddle the table albeit on the back of less convincing performances. They won their first fixture against promoted side Hull City 2-0 but their second fixture against Aston Villa saw them clinch the 2-1 win by the skin of their teeth. And, finally, in the much-hyped clash against Man U, Chelsea fell short of the mark – well, both teams did as they settled on a dull draw.

The upshot of which has seen Chelsea’s odds move further away from even money. Last month when we last looked at their odds they were tipped at +300 across most sportsbooks. Today, they’ve slipped to +350 to win the match. As far as odds to lift the trophy are concerned, Bet365 have increased their odds from +200 to +225 while William Hill have increased their odds from +150 to +163.

Soccer Betting Verdict: It goes without saying that those looking to bank on the upset now can find better prices than were available last month. Tempting though those might be nothing about Chelsea’s performance so far on the new season recommends them. So we’re staying with our original sports picks and plumping down to a Bayern Munich win.

Taking a page from the markets, the salient bet remains Bayern Munich to win outright. And good news for Bayern fans, with the price dropping as low as -118 at William Hill, betting on a Bayern win now offers better value. While taking Bayern in the futures market to lift the trophy has gone up in price, odds of -225 at William Hill are still worthwhile. 

comment here