Soccer Picks: Barcelona vs. AC Milan Champions League Tips

Nila Amerova

Monday, November 4, 2013 1:24 PM UTC

Monday, Nov. 4, 2013 1:24 PM UTC

Barcelona are listed as the runaway favourites to win their Champions League fixture over AC Milan at Camp Nou. Will they punch at their weight class? Or can AC Milan deliver an upset? Find out as we rundown the soccer odds and deliver our choice sports picks.

Barcelona have market cornered

Barcelona are set to host AC Milan at Camp Nou on match day 4 as the hot favourites at -450 to win outright. A Wednesday clash that is firmly cornered in Barcelona’s camp on both sides of the coin at sportsbooks across the board, what with the Italian outfit being given no hope at all, listed as the hefty +1100 underdogs. Even the draw is tipped well out of reach at +550 at Bet365.

This Champions League betting market doesn’t reflect the current status quo in Group H however: that this is a clash between the top two sides in the group, who are only separated by two points. It also takes little stock of the reverse fixture that settled on a 1-1 draw in Milan as well the fact that winning this fixture would change the makeup of the table, if only temporarily. If Barcelona wins they’ll take a commanding five-point lead in the group; if AC Milan wins they’ll leapfrog Barcelona in the table by a point.

Both sides are impressed by the importance of this game towards their campaign and hierarchy within the table yet odds makers have chosen to take no stock of it. Interesting, wouldn’t you say? So the important question is whether sportsbooks have this right. Will Barcelona come through on these convincing soccer odds or will AC Milan defy the odds and mastermind the upset?

Barcelona vs. AC Milan betting tips and picks

If Champions League betting trends were any indication, it would seem they do have it right. Recent polls show that most sports bettors are shading a Barcelona win at -450 as their choice soccer pick and they are favouring the Over 2.5 as well, which can be backed at -225 at Bet365. Opinion seems split down the middle where score betting is concerned, an equal percentage favouring the 2-1 and 3-1 score in favour of Barcelona. Incidentally, both bets can be found at Bet365 and are listed equally at +900 soccer odds.

A slightly smaller percentage seems to be backing the Under 2.5 at +170 with the 2-0 score to Barcelona, listed at +550, being the favoured outcome.

Underscoring these soccer picks is Barcelona’s recent form. They are after winning the recent instalment of El Clasico as well as their subsequent two domestics against Celta de Vigo and Espanyol by a combined score of 5-0. It also points to their home form, which stands at a perfect 6-0-0 so far this season. Indeed, Barcelona is a tough side to beat on any given day but nowhere more so than at Camp Nou.

By contrast, AC Milan along with Mario Balotelli seem to have carelessly misplaced what little good form they had to start the season. The team is hapless, wholly off colour; he is ineffective. Upshot of both: out the window goes any good opinion or sportsbook value in AC Milan across the board as credible threats.

Following the 1-1 draw to Barcelona, AC Milan barely managed to make a point in Serie A through three fixtures, losing to both Parma and Fiorentina and settling on a 1-1 draw to Lazio. Bring on the panic. On the back of this conspicuous dip in form, AC Milan slipped down to tenth in the table Such form certainly doesn’t bode well for AC Milan.

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Soccer Betting Verdict: All things being considered, it’s hard to imagine how AC Milan will be able to come away with anything meaningful in Spain, such as a win or even a draw would be. It’s a long shot, as correctly portrayed by odds makers, which leaves nothing but a Barcelona win outright as the sensible choice for our soccer picks

Soccer Free Picks: Barcelona to win outright at -450
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