I usually start my betting previews with a little bit of history and a little bit of chat and a little bit of reference to how your Humble Handicapper has been doing of late, but in this instance I'm going to cut directly to the chase and tell you who will win the match.
Enough with saying you're gonna tell us straight away…WHERE’S THE MONEY MIKE?
Atletico Madrid are going to win this match. They are an 3/4 with the sports books while a win for Valencia is 7/2 and the game ending drawn is 11/4. If that sounds like I'm very confident it because I am. Madrid have the slightly better form considering their past five games with two wins and two draws and one defeat compared to Valencia’s one win, one loss and three draws. As an aside you might be interested know that looking at just the last four games that these two sides have played the stats are equally the same with both sides having won their most recent match, lost the one before that and drawn previous two.
What's more interesting is that Atletico Madrid have scored five goals in their last five matches and conceded just three. By comparison Valencia scored eight goals and conceded six.
I don't feel that looking at the last five games gives us a true indication of vision come out on top especially compared to the head-to-head stats statistics.
Valencia may have won the most recent clash between these sides by a score of 2-0, and a repeat of that score is available at 30/1. But Atletico Madrid won the two previous games in April last year, both home and away when the sides faced off in the Europe League.
It's interesting to note that the only two times that Valencia have come out on top when these sides have played, looking at just the last five encounters it has been at home. The best that Valencia have ever done when playing at Madrid was a 0-0 draw, something that has offered up 11/1 betting odds by the sports books.
It's sometimes called lazy handicapping just look at the table and say that whoever is near the top will come out on top in a clash but the table does seem to send out clear messages.
Atletico Madrid have won 13 of the games they've played at home and have lost just once this term. They scored 34 goals and conceded just seven. Therefore as I say back Madrid to win and I'm very tempted to say that you should back them to keep a clean sheet.
Valencia have a very dodgy away record winning four and drawn three and losing six games. They have also conceded 17 goals, that six more than they have scored on their travels.
Seriously bet on Atletico Madrid winning and winning to nil for your soccer picks with this one.
It's true that Valencia have plenty to play for as they are just two points behind in fourth place Real Sociedad, and one point ahead of sixth place Malaga, but as Atletico Madrid are just one point behind second-place Real Madrid they will hardly be thinking about their holidays, as every point counts.