Soccer Picks: Atletico Bilbao vs. Valencia

Mike Richardson

Saturday, March 9, 2013 7:50 PM GMT

There's a great game in Spain this weekend when Athletic Bilbao takes on Valencia in a match that will have very little impact on the Spanish table but should do wonders for your bank balance.

These two Spanish sides look like they're on a bad run of form at the minute with each side recording just one victory from their last five encounters, therefore this should be the sort of game played with plenty of passion and plenty of heart.

Enough with the anatomy lesson…WHERE’S THE MONEY MIKE?

After 26 Spanish league games Athletic Bilbao are way down in 14th position while Valencia have reached the dizzying heights of sixth. There are 13 points separating these two sides and therefore the obvious bet is on an away victory available at 7/4 Betting Odds. The bookies disagree and a home victory is available at 6/4 and you might be interested to know that the shortest correct score odds are on a 1-1 draw at 6/1 with Bet Victor. Also any draw is available at 12/5.

Home and Away

Valencia have a slightly shaky away record and have only managed to win four times on the road this term, they’ve drawn three and lost a whopping five.  What's more they've been out scored on their travels 16 goals to 11. Goal difference is a bit of a problem for Valencia as they are currently on -1.

Athletic Bilbao by comparison have pretty much a  50-50 split with their home games they’ve won five and lost six and drawn two. Also they have been outscored on home turf 20 goals to 16 in those 13 games.

The most obvious bet is to stay well away from a 0-0 draw as both sides seem very capable of conceding goals. If you think that's highly unlikely by all means can put your money on a goalless game which is available with sports books at 14/1.

Looking at the last five meetings between these two sides shows you that it's very nearly always about Valencia as they have come out on top four times from those last five games twice when they were playing away from home. The best Athletic Bilbao has ever done head-to-head,  going back to October 2010 was a draw when the game ended 1-1.

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However I do think that as Valencia has outscored Athletic Bilbao 11 goals to 5 in these games it would take a brave man to bet on the home side coming out victorious, especially as Valencia has put three goals past Athletic Bilbao in their last two meetings. You might be interesting to know that the odds on 3-0 are 25/1, 3- 1 is at 28/1 and 3-2 is 22/1.

However I'm going out on quite a considerable limb with this game, especially as Athletic Bilbao haven't scored more than one goal since February and have conceded 10 goals in their last five matches. The visitors have scored in every one of their last five games and have scored two goals on three occasions.

[gameodds]17/220821/169-1537-1096-349/us[/gameodds]

Valencia are technically unbeaten in their last four games however their most recent three encounters have been draws.

Maybe your Humble Handicapper has had to put strong coffee, or maybe he is still annoyed from a pool are showing at the dog track last night but I'm going on a home victory for my soccer picks here.

Soccer Picks: Athletic Bilbao win 2-1 available at 9/1 with The Greek.