Soccer Picks: Aston Villa vs. Cardiff City Premier League Tips

Nila Amerova

Wednesday, November 6, 2013 8:39 PM UTC

Wednesday, Nov. 6, 2013 8:39 PM UTC

Aston Villa and Cardiff City collide on match day 11 in Premier League action. Find out what the bookmakers have gone to press with for this matchup and where the soccer betting value is to be had.

Premier League betting returns to the forefront following midweek Champions League action and on the cards is the clash between Aston Villa and Cardiff City, two sides enjoying mixed fortunes in top-flight action but that set up a rather interesting matchup. And one that has yielded curious soccer odds as well, truth be told.

Cardiff City wins South Wales derby

Cardiff City made history winning the first-ever South Wales derby to feature in Premier League, thereby, by extension, to feature globally as well. The often lively yet at times controversial derby between Cardiff and Swansea has mainly sojourned in lower league dust-ups but last week its Welsh tale unfurled on the big stage. It didn’t yield multiple goals nor did it witness tremendous momentum shifts. Still it did manage to live up to the hype, delivering a compelling clash between old foes for the world to see; and, for the sake of posterity, Cardiff City will be well chuffed to have come out on the winning side of its first Premier League instalment.

Now, not to put a damper on celebrations but it’s only one game. Just three measly points, although putting some distance between Cardiff and the relegation zone, that last but a solitary week. Their merit easily erased the following week. 

Enduring positive progress through the schedule ensures top-flight survival and not the result of one game, no matter how meaningful it is. So the task before Cardiff City is to get over beating Swansea quickly and knuckle down for the upcoming clash with Aston Villa because they’ll need to be focused and wary of the Villans, who are sat in 14th spot (two rungs down the ladder) but just a point adrift and looking to capitalise on home ground advantage over a Prem upstart. 

In fact, sportsbooks are listing the Bluebirds as vast underdogs on the road at +300 soccer odds to win outright at Villa Park in Birmingham. It’s only a four-point cushion to the drop zone after all, and prior to the victory over Swansea form was questionable to say the least so the danger they could slip up again is quite real.

It remains to be seen whether Cardiff can build on the momentum of their historic win over Swansea with another over Aston Villa. Early verdict in: bookies don’t seem to think so. And that isn’t encouraging for sports bettors looking to back Cardiff with their soccer picks.

Aston Villa solid favourites?

Despite questionable form of their own the Villans enter this clash against Cardiff City as the firm -110 favourites to win outright at Bet365. Two draws and two defeats in their last four games don’t augur well for Aston Villa nor does the fact that they’ve only managed one victory in five home games this season – albeit impressive as it came against one of the odds makers short-odds-on favourites for the title this season, Manchester City. 

What gives? Why is Aston Villa so strong a favourite over Cardiff City? Clearly, it’s not home form that has earned them such a vote of confidence. Frankly, they can’t seem to buy a win no matter how hard they try at Villa Park. Then again it’s been a tough schedule with Liverpool, Man City, Tottenham and Everton, to name a few, come calling. So benefit of the doubt then?

Arguably, this market has more to do with Cardiff City being a promoted side as well a side that doesn’t travel well – as evinced by their 1-2-2 record on the road – and not much to do with anything that is positive coming from Villans on their home turf. But just because sportsbooks aren’t buying what they are selling does that mean we shouldn’t? In hindsight, the win over Swansea may prove to be a catalyst for better things to come.

Soccer betting verdict: What we have before us is a case where sportsbooks are overrating the hosts and, at the same time, underrating the visitors based on recent performance, the upshot of which leaves a lot to be desired notionally. Overall, neither side is particularly convincing right now, for all sorts of reasons. And that has us sceptical to the point that we strongly feel they might just cancel each other out. So we’re going to trot out the draw for this game as our value soccer pick, which you can find trading at +250 at Bet365.

Soccer Free Picks: Draw at +250 at Bet365

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