Soccer Picks: Arsenal vs. West Ham United Best Bet for Saturday's Premier League Action

Lee Phelps

Thursday, March 12, 2015 2:50 PM GMT

It's a London derby this weekend as Arsenal with plenty to play for take on West Ham, who are looking at a season petering out. Lee Phelps has been looking at the odds for his free betting picks.

Two London teams heading in different directions meet at The Emirates on Saturday with Arsenal taking on West Ham. The Gunners are third in the Premier League, with an FA Cup semi-final and a crucial Champions League game on the horizon.

The Hammers are 10th and in their worst spell of the season with just one win in 11, although five have been draws. They have scored 11 goals in those matches, having bagged 29 in the previous 17 games.

Oddsmakers have made Arsenal -250 favorites in the Three-Way (Winner) odds marketplace with visiting West Ham +700 underdogs and the Draw set at +350. 

 

Arsenal
In my view the only negative for Arsenal is the trip to Monaco to attempt to overturn a 3-1 Champions League deficit. It could well weigh heavy on their minds, but Arsene Wenger is a master at the games leading up to European matches – he has been doing it for nearly 20 years after all. 

The form at home is great too with seven straight wins, scoring 19 and conceding three. Incidentally they haven’t won eight in a row since November 2005, so it will their best run in a decade if they get all three points. They have only lost two league games at home since the start of last season. Add to that their London derby record in front of their own fans, with no defeat in 12 and it looks an uphill task for Sam Allardyce’s team.

On the goal scoring front Olivier Giroud has managed eight goals in his last 10 Premier League starts and likes a goal against this weekend’s opposition, with four in four league encounters. Theo Walcott goes one better, with five in his last four and three assists.

 

West Ham
There is very little to be hopeful about from a West Ham point of view, having won none of the last 13 league games against Arsenal (W0 D2 L11), losing the last eight in a row. Add to that one win in their last seven away London derbies and the fact that Big Sam has never won a game as manager of any team away at Arsenal and I’m struggling to even make a case for a draw.

There are a couple of possible soccer picks on the West Ham goals front though. First of all the headed goals stat I’ve unleashed a few times this season. The Hammers have scored the most headers (15) and only Burnley and Stoke have conceded more than Arsenal (10).

The other potential bet revolves around a strange stat that shows West Ham have scored first, but lost in four of the last five games with Arsenal. The Gunners to come from behind and win is 8.0 (7/1) while they are 4.6 (18/5) to come from behind and win or draw.

Soccer picks
Given Arsenal’s form, I’ve ruled out a West Ham win, so the only question in my mind is whether they can manage a draw. I actually think Arsenal will have more than one eye on that trip to Monaco, so I could see a draw. I’m going to trust soccer odds here and play Arsenal to come from behind. West Ham were two up against Spurs and drew 2-2 recently so can see that happening again.

 

Free Soccer Pick: Arsenal to come from behind and win or draw 4.6 (18/5)

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