Soccer Picks: AC Milan vs. Roma

Nila Amerova

Friday, December 13, 2013 4:41 PM GMT

Arguably, one of the marquee matches on the Serie A menu is the clash between AC Milan and AS Roma in week 16. Join us as we breakdown this matchup complete with soccer free picks.

Can AC Milan defeat Roma?

Somewhat surprisingly, sportsbooks send AC Milan into their home tilt with undefeated AS Roma as the favourites albeit on the short side of even money at +130.

AC Milan have been rather atrocious this season. Sat in ninth place they boast a dubious 4-6-5 record through 15 laps and 18 points. Moreover, they are a staggering 22 points off pace setting Juventus and 19 points adrift of Roma in second place. Yet somehow odds makers fancy their chances?

Recent form is decidedly improved with AC Milan on a seven-game undefeated run across all competitions, four in Serie A including three draws and a win since a 2-0 defeat at home to Fiorentina on November 2. It remains to be seen whether this form is a sign of a turnaround or an indication of a lax stretch in the schedule that included dates with middleweights Torino and Genoa and lightweights Chievo and Catania. If we were to wager on it, it would be the latter. In fact, Milan’s win over bottom stragglers Catania is their lone, solitary win on the road this season where they have been wholly off colour.

AC Milan will be hosting Roma at Stadio Giuseppe Meazza in the fashion Mecca on Monday where they are a slightly better 3-2-2 this season. But their last win dates back to October 19 when they beat Udinese 1-0, a long, long time ago as far as their stock value in soccer betting markets is concerned. Recently they are on the back of two draws and a defeat at home, which include two goals scored and four conceded. That can’t augur well for a date with Roma now can it?

Roma remain undefeated in Serie A

Roma are installed as the massive underdogs at +210 to win outright in Milan, or therein depending on the select sportsbooks, despite enjoying a rather flawless season to date. What gives?

Roma remain undefeated in Serie A through 15 laps with an 11-4-0 mark and 37 points. For a long stretch they led the table but a recent spate of draws, which coincided with Totti’s untimely injury, saw them give way to Juventus.

Four straight draws to middleweights in Serie A cost Roma dearly. Fortunately, they seemed to have turned a corner with a crucial 2-1 win over Fiorentina at the weekend, a match that loomed dangerous and could have potentially yielded the upset. It very nearly did with the pair level at 1-1 going into the halftime but for a second half goal by Destro that salvaged the win and three points.

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Soccer Betting Tips and Picks: While there have been some positive signs coming from the AC Milan camp, they don’t appear to be convincing enough to warrant favourable soccer odds against a side as good as Roma have been this season, especially on defence where they have been nigh impenetrable allowing just five goals across 15 matches. If AC Milan are to come through on their +130 soccer odds to win outright at Bet365, they’ll have to come up with something special against Roma, something they haven’t been able to do so far this season. It’s not impossible given their talent but it would be out of nowhere given their season right now. The best they could aspire to is the draw at +230 at Bet365. But even that is a bit of a stretch, evinced by the large odds on offer.

AC Milan should be miles better than they are this season (Coulda. Woulda. Shoulda).  Fact is they aren’t and they haven’t really deposited a convincing enough account to suggest they are on the verge of masterminding a statement-making win over Roma. As such, for our money, we’re backing Roma to win outright at +210 at Bet365 with our soccer picks. Given AC Milan’s woes and Roma’s solid defence we also fancy the Under 2.5 at -125.

Soccer Free Picks: AS Roma to win outright at +210; Under 2.5 at -125