Soccer Picks: AC Milan vs. AS Roma

Nila Amerova

Thursday, May 9, 2013 5:32 PM GMT

AC Milan and Roma go head-to-head at the Stadio Giuseppe Meazza on Sunday in what should be a very interesting affair between these two Serie A stalwarts.

Soccer Picks – AC Milan vs. Roma

Join us as we look for the betting value in this match and how to place our money agains the soccer odds.

If you are looking to back AC Milan

AC Milan (20-8-8) take a formidable 11-game undefeated streak on home turf into the clash with Roma on Sunday, the only blemish on that record is a 1-1 draw to Napoli last month. And the last home fixture AC Milan relinquished was a 3-1 defeat to Fiorentina way back in November.

Overall, AC Milan, who sit third in Serie A on 68 points, boast a 13-1-4 record at the Stadio Giuseppe Meazza. Underscoring that impressive home form is a +18 goal differential (GF 33 and GA 15). On the strength of all these stats, backing AC Milan for yet another home victory at -150 soccer odds with William Hill would appear to be the smart play.

Over the 11-game undefeated run, AC Milan scored 24 goals, conceding only 8. Eight fixtures saw them score at least two goals. Four fixtures were clean sheets while six saw them conceded just a goal. Only one fixture saw them concede two goals and that was during a recent 4-2 win over Catania. Therefore, if you are going for the AC Milan win, why stop there. Peripheral markets such as correct score betting offer up additional value. A 2-1 score to AC Milan is trading at a delicious +700 while both a 1-0 and 2-0 score is trading at +900.

If you are looking to back Roma

Roma (17-7-12) are set to play their last away game of the season when they take on AC Milan at Stadio Giuseppe Meazza. Roma take a so-so 8-2-8 road record to Milan, a record that recently improved on the back of a back-to-back road winning streak – a 2-1 win over Torino and a 1-0 win over Fiorentina. Sandwiched in between those two accounts was a 3-2 victory over Inter Milan in Coppa Italia – a victory that saw Roma take the tie 5-3 on aggregate and set up a date in the final with Lazio.

Based solely on their apparent surge in this final push on the season, backing Roma to the victory would appear to be the value play at +400 soccer odds at William Hill. If you are looking to do just that, know that Roma have been inconsistent for the most part this season. In their last ten domestic games, they are a modest 5-3-2; in their last ten away games they are 3-2-5.

Interesting information to take note of as well is that Roma have conceded more goals than they’ve scored on the road (GF 31 GA 32). Over the course of their last ten road games, they managed to keep a clean sheet only once while they being held scoreless three times. Three fixtures saw them score more than two goals, one of which was a 3-3 draw with Bologna, and five fixtures saw them concede at least two goals or more. Incidentally, the draw is on offer at +275 for our soccer picks.

Head-to-head Comparison:

These two clubs have played a total of 41 matches, lifetime – 20 in Milan and 21 in Rome. Milan holds the slim 15-13-13 edge over Roma and they scored 50 goals while conceding 52. Recent H2H comparison (comprised of the last seven Seria A encounters over the past three seasons) reveals Milan to have the merest edge with a 3-2-2 mark. Milan won two at home and one on the road while Roma won once at home and once on the road. Twice they drew scoreless both times at Roma. This season’s reverse fixture in Rome was played on December 12 and Roma beat Milan 4-2.

[gameodds]10/226482/227-999997-43-349/us[/gameodds]

Soccer Betting Verdict: On paper, AC Milan has the slightest edge over Roma. But couple that with their home ground record this season and Milan does appear to be the better play to win here. It won’t be an easy win for Milan though. Typically, Roma plays Milan well and now they have the added boost of a successful Coppa Italia run to draw from inspiration. Because of Coppa Italia though, expect Roma to be careful in this match, after all they wouldn’t want to risk anything that could hurt their chances against Lazio.

Soccer Picks: AC Milan to win 2-1 at Paddy Power

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