Soccer Picks: AC Milan vs Lazio

Richard O'Hagan

Monday, October 28, 2013 7:33 PM GMT

Monday, Oct. 28, 2013 7:33 PM GMT

It is hard to see this as anything other than a make or break game for both sides. So where do we believe the best value lies for Wednesday's matchup?

The 2013 season has already been a disappointment for both, as two teams who are always expected to be contenders for the scudetto instead languish in eighth and ninth place. With identical win/loss records and eleven points apiece, it 

is hard to think of either as a representative of mid-table mediocrity, but that is exactly what they are this season.

Looking back over the past four weeks, Milan have fractionally the better record, with two wins, a draw and a defeat as against Lazio’s win, defeat and two draws. That doesn’t do enough to suggest that either is about to launch an assault on Roma at the top of the table (and it would have to be an assault from a long way out, given that Roma are already 13 points ahead of either of them), but it does explain why Milan soccer odds are as short as 1.8 with Paddy Power to win this game.

Lazio, meanwhile, can be had for 4.8 at BetVictor, whilst William Hill offer 3.6 on the draw. Given that both sides have tightened up defensively in the past month, these odds begin to look a little attractive. However, there’s value to be had elsewhere, too.

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For your soccer picks you might want to consider, for example, the fact that both sides average around 1.5 goals per game, but also concede goals at a similar rate. That suggest that a 2-2 draw is a real possibility here, which is priced at 19.0 and which you can combine with a bet on there being more than 3.5 goals in this game, which will get you around 3.5. Or, if you are very bold, you can go for Milan to win 3-1 at 16.0.

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