Soccer Picks: AC Milan vs. Barcelona in Champions League

Mike Richardson

Monday, February 18, 2013 8:28 PM GMT

AC Milan host Barcelona in the Champions League on Wednesday night, and we believe that there is great soccer betting value available when these two footballing giants meet.

It's no surprise that Barcelona are the bookies favourite to win the Champions League this year and they are at 15/8 with most sports books, while Bayern Munich are the bookies second favourite, quite a way behind at 6/1. AC Milan, by comparison, are listed at considerably lower odds at 100/1 to lift the trophy. Everyone is expecting those betting odds to be borne out when the sides face of midweek and while it's no surprise that I'm backing Barcelona to go to the next round, the smart money is to be made on picking the right result from this match.

Of the top online sportsbooks that we follow, most list Barcelona at 4/5 to reach the final of the Champions League, telling AC Milan 40/1 to even reach the final because they would have to beat Barcelona to get there.

Enough with the finalisation…WHERE’S THE MONEY MIKE?

A similar very good home record in the champions league having never lost at home leg of the European cup quarter-final, winning 10 and drawing five in the run but I do get the feeling that that impressive bit of history, and the fact that this isn't a quarter-final game will see the home side come up short. If you think home advantage will make all the difference and still not be tempted to back and AC Milan when at 6/1 I'd be satisfied with adding a draw to my soccer picks at 3/1.

But…

However I have to come out and say I just expect Barcelona to win this game as I expect Barcelona to go and win everything, in fact if they get the Grand National of the Oxford Cambridge bar race I expect them to win that too. Barcelona are 8/15 to win this game. A little FYI AC Milan have an all-time record of four wins, five draws and six losses against Barcelona in European competition.

Still…

The Rossoneri defeated Barcelona 4-0 in the 1994 Champions League final in Athens I repeated that score is at the highly unlikely 500/1 with Stan James, and you should know that AC Milan beating Barcelona by that score is figured to be less likely than Barcelona beating AC Milan 7-0 which is at 325/1 with Coral.

However…

Looking the last five meetings between these two sides we have seen two wins at home and one away to Barcelona, that’s three clear of victories for the Spanish giants and a pair of draws (one home and one away). Interestingly enough each time the Barcelona have triumphed over AC Milan in the last five meetings they scored three goals therefore I think it's definitely worth spreading your bets around on Barcelona winning 31 at 9/1 and 3-2 at 28/1.

[gameodds]8/218928/43/us[/gameodds]

Bet on goals and bet on Barcelona

Barcelona may have two draws in their last five games and AC Milan may have four victories and one draw from their last five but when they have won, they’ve won their games by a single goal, Barcelona when they won have twice gone over four goals in the last five games beating Osasuna 5-1 and Getafe 6-1.

Prediction: Barcelona win 3-0 available at 12/1 with Bet Victor