Soccer Betting: Argentina vs. Chile Odds Preview, Prediction and Picks

Friday, June 24, 2016 6:14 PM GMT

Let’s handicap this Group D rematch, look at the series History between these two CONMEBOL and world giants and then make some picks in an enticing match between the two.


Argentina vs. Chile
The Copa América Centenario 2016 Final will see of the best—if not the two best—international football teams in the world collide at MetLife Stadium in East Rutherford, New Jersey on Sunday night when Lionel Messi and #1-ranked Argentina face Arturo Vidal and #5-ranked Chile in a rematch of the Group D opener between the two (June 6) at Levi’s Stadium in Santa Clara, won by Argentina, 2-1. In this wonderful rematch between the true two best sides in the tournament, soccer odds show Argentina -127 favorites over Chile (+400) with the Draw priced +220 at Bet365.

The Total (Goals) in this match has been set at 2½ Over +125, Under -162 at William Hill with the First Half odds seeing a Draw the favorite at +110, Argentina at +140 and Chile at +450 at Bet365. Some Props: Both Teams To Score: Yes -133, No +100 at BetVictor; Correct Score: 0-0, 8/1 at Betfair, Argentina 1-0, +500 at BetVictor, Argentina 2-1, 8/1 at BetVictor, Argentina 3-1, 15/1 at SkyBet, Chile 1-0, 11/1 at PaddyPower, Chile 2-1, 16/1 at William Hill; 2-2, 20/1 at William Hill; Total Corners: 9½ Over -110, Under -123 at 888Sport.

 

Argentina
Argentina (-250 to win Copa América at Bet365 made quick work of the US in the Semifinals at NRG Stadium in Houston on Tuesday night, disposing of the hosts, 4-0 on some beautiful goals either supplied by or (one) scored by the Milky Way galaxy’s greatest Soccer player, Lionel Messi (FC Barcelona).

La Albiceleste cruised in their Semifinals and Quarterfinal games—Argentina ousted Venezuela, 4-1 at Gillette Stadium in Foxboro, Massachusetts last Saturday—in this Copa América Centenario after rolling over this Chilean side, Panama and Bolivia in the Group (D) Stage—outscoring them 10-1 in the process and Argentina has outscored Copa opponents 18-2 heading in here with Chile’s goal from José Fuenzalida at the 90+3’-minute mark in the first meeting accounting for half of the scores La Albiceleste and starting GK Sergio Romero have allowed in the five matches it has played.

So, even though this is the match and the team that Argentina didn’t want to see in the Final, the oddsmakers have it right here and most novices and some casual Soccer fans and bettors will quickly dismiss big (odds) underdog Chile and its chances here, but this is probably the 2nd-best team on the planet right now with all of the perceived heavyweights in Europe (Spain, Germany, France, Italy) looking down a bit at this EURO 2016 with many new nations like Croatia, Iceland and Hungary on the upswing.

In the win against the US, Argentina Manager Gerardo Martino had a Starting XI (4-3-3) of: GK Sergio Romero; D’s Marcos Rojo, Gabriel Mercado, Ramiro Funes Mori and Nicolás Otamendi; MFs Javier Mascherano, Augusto Fernández and Éver Banega; and a dangerous attack force of Lionel Messi, Gonzalo Higuaín and Ezequiel Lavezzi.

With little magician Messi (Anytime Goalscorer +125 at 888Sport), Higuaín (Napoli; Anytime Goalscorer +140 at 888Sport) and Lavezzi (Hebei China Fortune; Anytime Goalscorer +250 at Paddy Power), La Albiceleste provide nightmares both on the counter-attack as well as when dominating normally when on Offense. But it’s when you see who it is Argentina—worth a look at the coming Summer Olympics—at 4/1 odds to win the Gold Medal (Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook)—didn’t start and who Martino hasn’t been playing when you realize why FIFA has this team ranked #1 and why the distance between the dudes in the sky blue-and-white striped uniforms are creating some distance between themselves and the theoretical Europeana giants, all of whom really seem to be slipping some in the grand scheme of things.

When you have guys like Sergio Agüero (Manchester City; Anytime Goalscorer +154 at 888Sport), Erik Lamela (Tottenham Hotspur; Anytime Goalscorer +380 at 888Sport), the dynamic Nicolás Gaitán (Benfica; Anytime Goalscorer +380 at 888Sport), Javier Pastore (Paris Saint-Germain; Anytime Goalscorer +400 at Coral) and Ángel Di María (Paris Saint-Germain; Anytime Goalscorer +210 at NetBet) all at your disposal and not even needed in your Starting XI, it’s almost like cheating. And when a guy like Di María is your backup playmaker, then it really is cheating.

 

Chile
Chile (+187 to win Copa América at Bet365) shut out Chile, 2-0 at Soldier Field in Chicago on Wednesday night in a Rain Delayed Semifinal in which La Roja scored twice in the first 11 minutes—on a Charles Aránguiz goal 7 minutes in followed by a José Pedro Fuenzalida strike at the 11-minute mark—to cruise into this Final. Chile snapped Mexico’s 22-match unbeaten streak in the Quarterfinals last Saturday night, battering El Tri at Levi’s Stadium in Santa Clara, California, 7-0 as Edson Puch (16’, 88’), Eduardo Vargas (44’, 52’, 58, 74’) and Alexis Sánchez (49’) all scored for La Roja.

In his Starting XI (4-3-3) against Colombia in the Semifinals, Chile Head Coach Juan Antonio Pizzi had: GK Claudio Bravo; D’s José Fuenzalida, Gonzalo Jara, Gary Medel and Jean Beausejour; Midfielders Mauricio Isla, Charles Aránguiz, Francisco Silva and the Argentinian-born Pedro Pablo Hernández with Eduardo Vargas and Alexis Sánchez up top at Forwards with Arturo Vidal out on a 1-match Suspension for Yellow Card accumulation. DM Marcelo Díaz was injured in the match and the Copa América holders also lost Hernández who was involved in a collision near Midfield, so La Roja didn’t come out of the Semis unscatched.

But Chile getting Arturo Vidal back from Suspension and having others likely to go like Edson Puch (Anytime Goalscorer +650 at 888Sport) and maybe Nicolás Castillo (Universidad Católica on loan from Belgian Club Brugge; Anytime Goalscorer +459 at 888Sport) and Mauricio Pinilla (Atalanta; Anytime Goalscorer +500 at Coral), there’s a reason why La Toja are the defending champions of this tournament, currently ranked #5 in the world and likely headed to #2 as well as being maybe the only ones on Earth who can honestly stop or force Extra Time—there is ET in this Copa América Final—or a Penalty Kick Shootout against Messi and top-ranked and odds-favorite Argentina. It’s because they’re damn good. Don’t sleep on this Chilean side.

 

Logical Conclusions, Team Forms, Copa América Centenario Final Picks
Besides the immense amount of World Football talent here, five things (besides the Rosters) really stick out heading in choosing a side—as opposed to a 2-2 Final scoreline and a potential Penalty Kick Shootout in Jersey not involving Tony Soprano. 

1. Argentina’s drive to finally win some international Silverware with Messi (28 years old) still in his prime.
2. The Injuries and potential absences of DM Díaz and Hernández (Knee) for Chile.
3. The fact Argentina’s Roster is so loaded with scorers and that Martino has a stacked deck to go to when compared to Pizzi who will have to start all hist studs and maybe have Edson Puch stashed away a Substitute who can make things happen up top, (assuming 5th-ranked [FIFA] Chile is down and chasing a goal or two).
4. La Albiceleste have already beaten Chile in this tourney and La Roja needed 94 minutes to get a goal. If Possession nine-tenths of the Law, then having Messi on your side to help dominate that (Time of) Possession may be deemed illegal in the Southern Hemisphere if this keeps up too long. You can’t possibly score if you don’t have the ball, Bubba. And...
5. Revenge. Revenge for losing in this spot last year and not scoring a bleeding goal when you have this wonderful, attack-oriented Offensive Roster.

One thing to remember here is that the four Golden Boot finalists for this tournament will be playing in this contest in Lionel Messi (5 goals, -250 Player of Tournament at BetVictor) and Gonzalo Higuaín (4 goals, 66/1 Player of Tournament at BetVictor) for Argentina (WWWWWW) and Eduardo Vargas (7 goals,+175 Player of Tournament at BetVictor) and Alexis Sánchez (3 goals, 66/1 Player of Tournament at BetVictor) for heavy underdogs Chile (LLWWWW).

Props players beware that Higuaín is sitting on 4 goals and should he score twice or thrice in an Argentina win, be the hero here in the Final and end with 7 goals in the Copa América, winning the Golden Boot, then one would think the Napoli Striker (66/1 at BetVictor) would get some love for Player of Tournament honors. But when Lionel Andrés Messi is on your side creating and feeding you like a mother bird feeds her chirping babies, then you can see why the 66/1 (for Higuaín) looks both Great and Scary at the same time. Messi.

The L5 games between these two sides has seen Argentina (sort of) go an unbeaten 4-1-0 against Chile (10 GF-3 GA) in the soccer betting world (but 3-1-1 in the Won/Lost world) with 2-1 Wins in the Group D opener in this Copa América Centenario (June 6); a CONMEBOL World Cup Qualifier this Spring (March 24, 2016); and in a CONMEBOL World Cup Qualifier four years ago (Oct. 16, 2012). Argentina also defeated Chile 4-1 another CONMEBOL World Cup Qualifier way back in 2011 while the two sides played to a 0-0 Draw in last year’s Copa América Final on July 4 at National Stadium in Santiago, Chile.

So that will be fresh in Argentina’s mindset—especially the 0-0 part through 90 minutes of play and Extra Time—not scoring when it needed to score the most against a team it feared facing who won its first-ever Copa América in the process, snagging the silverware, 4-1 in a Penalty Kick Shootout in which Sánchez scored the eventual match- and tournament-winner, creating a bitter Memory for Messi, Higuaín, Di María, Romero and all involved, including the millions of fans of La Albiceleste.

This game should have a little quicker pace because of a nervous Argentina and with Messi in top form and Di María available, Martino will go for it on the attack and game plan. And with Chile having the prolific Vargas, Sánchez and Vidal back, there’s just too much firepower to suggest backing the Under here or seeing a duplicate of last year’s 0-0 affair. This one should be closer to the 2-1 game we saw in Group D play earlier this month at Levi’s Stadium in Santa Clara—where Di María (51’) and Inter Milan’s Éver Banega (59’) scored in an 8-minute span in the 2nd Half —and one team, likely Argentina, should score in the first 33 minutes or so, setting the tone (for everything).

Lifetime, Argentina is 57-23-6 (188 GF-70 GA) against Chile and a diamond-worthy, unbeaten (in Three-Way betting markets) 20-7-0 (63 GF-14 GA) in the Copa América against Chile, despite losing in the end last year to La Roja in a PK Shootout. So, Argentina has never technically lost to Chile, despite actually losing in last year’s Final when it mattered most. When Soccer, Penalty Kick Shootouts and Gambling Stats collide, best get out the microscope. But the bottom line is that Argentina is hungry, has Revenge on its mind, has Messi and has never lost through 90 minutes of play the L27 times these two South American nations have met in this tourney. And that’s saying something. Vaya con Messi.

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Predicted Final Score: Argentina 2 Chile 1
Free Copa America Picks: Argentina -120 at Sky Bet, Over 2 -152 at 188Bet, Argentina To Lift Trophy -250 at Ladbrokes
Free Copa America Props Picks: Gonzalo Higuaín Anytime Goalscorer +140 at 888Sport, Lionel Messi Player of Tournament -250 at BetVictor
Free Copa America Semifinal Picks Record: 11-2