Should Bettors Fade The Public When Placing Khan vs. Canelo Boxing Pick?

Jason Lake

Friday, May 6, 2016 6:10 PM GMT

The boxing odds have Saul Alvarez as a healthy favorite for Saturday's middleweight title fight with Amir Khan. Are the sharps on board, or do they prefer the underdog?

Jason's 2016 record as of May 4: 2-0 ML, 1-0 Totals (+3.00 units)

Hey, we've got an actual boxing match on our hands. Saul “Canelo” Alvarez (46-1-1, 32 KOs) defends his WBC middleweight belt this Saturday, in Las Vegas and on HBO pay-per-view, against Amir Khan (31-3, 19 KOs), the former two-time light welterweight champion. They'll be fighting at a catchweight of 155 pounds. Should be competitive enough, right?

Not according to the boxing odds. As we go to press, Canelo is a chunky –500 favorite or thereabouts at most locations. And that's pretty much where Canelo has been ever since the first lines hit the board in early April. A quick cruise of our Lines History for Saturday's fight shows Canelo growing a little chalkier at some books, and holding steady at others. Where's the love for the underdog?

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Better Call: Saul
Well, this is boxing, where chalk is king. Canelo is one of the most respected fighters in the sport, sitting at No. 7 on the pound-for-pound charts at Ring Magazine. His only loss was to Floyd Mayweather Jr. (–300) in 2013. Last November, Canelo faced Miguel Cotto and won the middleweight title by unanimous decision, also while fighting at 155 pounds. Plenty of money came in on both fighters after Cotto opened at +300, but we were leaning toward the underdog here at the ranch, and we feel good about it given how close the fight was.

Khan doesn't measure up quite as well as Cotto. He's a quality fighter, yes, but he's moving up from 147 pounds, and he was already lacking in punching power as a welterweight. This is bad news going up against a fighter with Canelo's defensive skills and stamina. It's quite possible that Khan will win some early rounds by peppering Canelo with those beautiful jabs, but once that tank starts running dry, it'll be Khan who's on the defensive, and that's not his forte.

 

Good Morning Britain
Khan also appears to have a nasty case of glass jaw. Even though he's only been knocked out twice, that's been the word on Khan for a while now. Perhaps it's more a case of Khan allowing himself to absorb too much punishment. Either way, Khan thinks the added weight has made his chin stronger, but critics are concerned he'll lose some foot speed in return, which means he'll end up taking even more punishment from Canelo.

Count us among those critics. We're also looking for the betting public across the pond in Khan's native England to overbet their hero and add even more value to this line, which they certainly appear to have done over at William Hill. We'll gladly put Canelo in our boxing picks at their current price, and may the squared circle be with you.

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Free Boxing Pick: Alvarez -350
Best Line Offered: at William Hill