How To Bet Shawn Porter vs. Errol Spence Jr: Boxing Picks and Predictions

Shawn Porter vs Errol Spence Jr

Saturday, September 28, 2019 – 08:00 PM EDT

It’s a welterweight unification bout of the highest order this weekend when IBF titlist Errol Spence faces WBC champion Shawn Porter for bragging rights for the division and a claim to be one of the top pound for pound fighters in the world.

Spence (25-0, 21 KOs) is widely recognized as one of the top 5 pound for pound fighters in the world. Since bursting onto the scene after a failed 2012 Olympic run, Spence has been virtually unstoppable.

He’s punished the likes of Chris Algeiri, Chris Van Heerden, Kell Brook and Lamont Peterson with relative ease. Each victory seemingly more devastating than the last.

However, Spence wanted to prove that he was more than a phenomenal finisher and pitched a shutout against fellow pound for pound fighter Mikey Garcia back in March when Garcia jumped up two weight classes to challenge boxing’s boogeyman.

Across the ring will be Shawn Porter (30-2-1, 17 KOs). Though not as prodigious as his foe, Porter has been tough with a series of opponents. The former IBF champion holds victories over Adrien Broner, Devon Alexander, Paulie Malignaggi, Andre Berto, and Yordenis Ugas.

Although he has a pair of controversial losses to Kell Brook and Keith Thurman, Porter highs far outweigh his lows and his 2018 unanimous decision victory over Danny Garcia to claim the WBC title prove that he’s worth mentioning as one of boxing’s best.

Unfortunately, for Porter, oddsmakers don’t necessarily see the 31-year-old as a viable threat to Spence.

Spence sits as a considerable favorite as high as -900 (5Dimes) while Porter hovers around +600 (Pinnacle and 5Dimes). Yes, Spence should be the favorite to win because of his exceptional boxing ability and size at 147 pounds. However, this line might be egregious and you may be getting a steal with Porter.

Porter has far and wide the better resume than Spence. While Spence’s best opponent was the undersized Garcia, Porter has been in the ring with just about everyone that the division has to offer with the exception of Spence.

There has yet to be a fight where Porter was dominated and the oddsmakers seem to believe that this will be Spence’s coming out party at the expense of “Showtime.’

This could be very much like Andy Ruiz’s monumental upset of Anthony Joshua where the betting public overvalued Joshua as an entity and underestimated the toughness of Ruiz. We all know how that fight went and this could very well play out in similar fashion.

As long as Porter does what he does best by bulling forward with intense pressure that forces Spence to fight rather than box, this can get interesting.

Porter may not be a defensive dynamo but he’s proven to have an exceptional chin that walked through both Keith Thurman and Danny Garcia’s lauded power and pressed the action.

We’ve yet to see Spence have to fight from behind and Porter’s pressure could get him out to an early lead. The key here is Spence’s conditioning and his willingness to go to Porter’s body in an effort to slow down what seems like an infinite gas tank.

But it’s easier said than done against an opponent who has proven to fight every second of every round. You can do a lot worse than picking up on Porter being such a significant underdog.

The 5Dimes line at +600 is worth a chance. But due to Spence’s undefeated record and Porter’s ability to fight all 12 rounds, the best route for picking Porter would be to take him by decision at +1050 at 5Dimes. This could very well be a war of attrition and a close decision.

The Spence line is just too wide to take with any comfort. However, if you take Spence at his word, he’s going to find a way to stop Porter. You would have to believe that it has something to do with going to the body and turning the Ohio product’s aggression against him.

Taking Spence by (T)KO has a much better benefit and William H has that line at +175, which is much better than a line north of -700 for a Spence victory.

This is going to be a tough fight and one that Spence has all the tools to win. But he’s in there with a dog who has never been dominated. Stranger things have happened in boxing.

Free Pick: Porter by Decision. Best Odds: +1050 (5Dimes)