Serie A Week 6 Soccer Picks: Fiorentina vs. Inter Milan

Kevin Stott

Saturday, October 4, 2014 5:24 PM UTC

Saturday, Oct. 4, 2014 5:24 PM UTC

Florence, Italy and Stadio Artemio Franchi is the site of this Week 6 Serie A match between host Fiorentina and Inter Milan. With 0 goals in the first two games here, taking the Under 2½ is the pick.

Odds Overview
Fiorentina vs. Inter Milan, Sunday, (BT Sport 2 (UK), 2:45 p.m. ET/11:45 a.m. PT): Like the day’s earlier Clash of Italian Titans—unbeaten and first-place Juventus hosting unbeaten and second-place AS Roma—this Italian Serie A Week 6 fixture between host and 10th-place Fiorentina (1-3-1, 6 points, 2 GF-3 GA) and fifth-place Inter Milan (2-2-1, 8 points, 11 GF-5 GA) in Florence may end up not producing much on the scoreboard despite some recent historical trends that say otherwise. Oddsmakers have host Fiorentina priced at +136 on the soccer odds board, Inter at a nice +210 and the Draw also at+210 (William Hill). The Draw No Bet odds for this match are Fiorentina -133, Inter Milan +114 (BetVictor) while the Both Teams To Score odds are Yes -115, No -115 (Boylesports)—relevant in that the L4 meetings in this series have all seen the BTTS bet win (IM 2-1, IM 2-1, F 4-1, IM 2-1) as well as 6 of the L8. But sometimes when you think you have a trend like this one that looks so good, further analysis reveals a couple of flies in the proverbial ointment and we have at least a couple here including a total of 0 goals being scored in Fiorentina’s first two Home games of the new Serie A season (0-0 Genoa, 0-0 Sassuolo)—the same number as me and all of you readers combined—and an Inter Milan (0-2-0 Away, 1 GF-1 GA) club which has played in two Unders in its two Road games. So, so much for suggesting the BTTS and calling it a day.

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The Viola certainly don’t seem like the type of team to be dwelling in 10th place in early Fall, but with just 2 goals on the season, Fiorentina should consider themselves fortunate to be where it’s at in the standings, a stout defense being a big part of the reason why—averaging just half a goal (0.5) a match heading into this fixture with seemingly improved Inter Milan. Where Fiorentina will start getting goals from is a mystery, although some of the players with the best odds to score in the Anytime Goalscorer marketplace from the Viola are: Babacar Khouma (+150, SkyBet), Mounir El Hamdaoui (+150), Juan Cuadrado (+240), Federico Bernardeschi (+240), Josip Ilicic (+275), Joaquín (+275) and Alberto Aquilini (+450). But making an Anytime Goalscorer prop wager in a match where very little scoring, if any, is perceived doesn’t make a lot of sense so this market, as well as the First Goalscorer prop would likely be potential wastes of Time and Money. Fiorentina are missing Mario Gómez, Giuseppe Rossi and Marko Marin to injuries, a big part of the reason this club is stuck on two goals this season.


Inter Milan
Internazionale (11 GF-5 GA) also has a number of players who should be able to score in Mauro Icardi (+150 Anytime Scorer, SkyBet), Daniel Osvaldo (+175), Rodrigo Palacio (+240), Federico Bonazzoli (+250), Hernanes (+275), Fredy Guarin (+350) and 20-year-old Mateo Kovacic (+450), among others. Honestly, Inter looks like a pretty good pick here as a +210 Underdog although the Draw (+210) is also a possibility with 0-0 (No Goals +800, bet365), 1-0, 1-1 or 2-0 the most likely endings in this possible snoozer. With Fiorentina having still not scored yet at Home, and with just 2 goals in 6 matches all season, the primal feel here is that there is some real potential value in taking the visiting Inter Milan To Score First +125 (bet365) here at Stadio Artemio Franchi in Florence. Inter Milan has held the upper hand in this series of late, going 6-1-1 in the L8 in the series (13 GF-9 GA) and 2-1-1 the L4 at Fiorentina (6 GF-5 GA), so, that more than 2/1 price as a live Underdog against a team that has had trouble scoring and actually hasn’t on its Home soil yet seems worth consideration.


Best Betting Approaches
With Fiorentina Unders 5-0 and its games being as non-threatening as a Total can get to be (when set at 2½), the obvious play here, like Juventus-AS Roma, is the Under as until there is a goal scored at Fiorentina, best to ride the horse in the direction he’s going. Logic says there will be a goal here, and even the Correct Score 1-1 +550 (William Hill) is worth a look, especially with the previously mentioned 4 consecutive Both Teams To Score prop bets hitting (Yes) in this series. With the number set at 2½ (-137, Ladbrokes) best to just pay the higher juice for that ½ goal that’s often a very hard hurdle to get over (3 goals) in Serie A and then and pray for no Penalty Kicks or Red Cards, always a distinct possibility on a warm Italian evening in October. Place your bet on the Under for your Serie A soccer picks.

Serie A Pick: Under 2½ -137 (Ladbrokes)

Serie A Props Pick: Inter Milan Draw No Bet +114 (BetVictor)

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