Serie A Tips & Predictions: Parma vs. Napoli

Lee Benson

Wednesday, January 23, 2013 8:56 PM UTC

Wednesday, Jan. 23, 2013 8:56 PM UTC

This game could well be a case of the irresistible force coming up against the immovable object when second in the league Napoli visit ninth place Parma in this clash Sunday. Where are we leaning with our Serie A tips & predictions for this fixture?

Napoli are one of the form teams in Serie A right now and the Serie A odds for winning the title outright have come in to 11/2 and second favourites with William Hill whilst leaders Juventus remain 1/4 favourites to retain their title. Third place Lazio are at 14/1. Napoli were last week reinstated the two points they had been deducted earlier in the season (in a match fixing case) when an appeal against that penalty was upheld a couple of days before their game at Fiorentina, moving them to second in the table without having to kick a football!

When the two sides met in Naples back in September the home side won out comfortable 3-1 winners and Napoli are 20/1 to repeat that scoreline this weekend whereas Parma are 25/1 to exact their revenge and reverse that score in their favour both with William Hill. The draw can be added to your Serie A picks at 23/10 with bet365.

That first game between these two is notable as Edinson Cavani scored the first of his 17 goals from 18 games in that match with the 17th of those coming in Fiorentina last weekend. That takes his tally in Serie A to 100 goals in less than six seasons since the Salto-born striker moved to Italy having began his a career in his home country of Uruguay with Montevideo side Danubio FC in 2006. Marek Hamsik (7) is the next highest scorer for them so far this campaign and three other players have netted four times this season.

Parma have shared the goals around the whole team a lot more with 12 different players netting this season with Ishak Belfodil (7) Carvalho De Oliveira Amauri (5) and Nicola Sansone (4) their main protagonists.

Both sides have won three of their last six games in the league with Parma drawing twice and Napoli once in that sequence. Both are unbeaten in their last four. Napoli have scored 12 more goals this season than Parma and are coincidentally 12 points ahead too. The sides are seven places apart in the league. Napoli have conceded 19 goals whilst Parma have let in 27 though only eight of those coming at the Ennio Tardini Stadium. Napoli have let in less goals away (8) than at home (11) this season.

The Ennio Tardini Stadium is a veritable fortress this season as Parma are the only side left in Serie A who have still not lost on home soil, winning six and drawing four. That record is even more remarkable when you consider that only Napoli and Lazio of the top eight sides above them are yet to visit the place with Inter and Roma both losing and Juve, Milan, Fioentina and Catania (Coppa Italia) all doing no better than a draw.

Both sides have been scoring week in week out and have only failed to score seven times between them in Serie A all season with November 11th being the last time Parma failed to score, and October 31st in Napoli's case. Parma have scored three or more on three occassions and Napoli have done so seven times, netting four goals twice and five once. 

Napoli are in the last 32 of the Europa League which resumes next month when they take in Czech side Viktoria Plzen over two legs, the first being played the 14th February in Naples. 

So where can the value be found in this game then? Well I am very reluctant to bet against the home record of Parma which speaks for itself and which they will be driven to protect at all costs as they have been so far this term but I am also not at all convinced that they have the fire power to beat high flying and free scoring Napoli. I can however see goals in this one and the 1-1 draw at 5/1 and the 2-2 draw at 12/1 with bet365 are my two favoured options here. 

As I am plumping for the draw in this one then there are several Half Time/Full Time bets that take my fancy with Parma/Draw 14/1 and Napoli/Draw 14/1 catching my eye and being offered by both Wiliam Hill and bet365. The Draw/Draw is at 4/1 and I can see that being the case if this becomes a defensive duel but with the goalscoring stats I have regaled you with above I see that bet as way less valuable.

As for the under 2.5 at 7/10 and the over 2.5 at 21/20 again there is little value there for me and as you will see from my correct score prediction I am going all out for the over 3.5 at 11/4 with William Hill.

Serie A Tips & Predictions: Score draw for me at 23/10 a corrrect score prediction of 2-2 at 16/1 and therefore the over 3.5 at 11/4

Check out our Tips & Predictions for the Premier League for more betting options.

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