Serie A Soccer Picks: Struggles on Defense Point to 'Over' on Napoli vs. Lazio

Nikki Adams

Thursday, September 17, 2015 9:40 PM UTC

Thursday, Sep. 17, 2015 9:40 PM UTC

Can Napoli record their first win on the season when they host Lazio in week 4 of Serie A betting? Join us as we breakdown this matchup and serve up soccer picks.

Napoli (0-2-1)
Napoli are still searching for their first win in Italy’s top flight as match day 4 approaches. They are sat down in the dumps, in 14th with a 0-2-1 mark and just 2 points in three rounds. Only a point separates them right now from 18th Carpi and the relegation zone. These aren’t happy times in Naples, that’s for sure.

Then again, it’s early days yet. The season 38-games long with 35 more to go from here onwards. Gli Azzurri or Partenopei (whichever nickname you’re most fond of where they are concerned) are still adjusting to life with new head coach Maurizio Sarri, the successor to Rafael Benitez who absconded for the much greener and luscious pastures of the Bernabeau in Madrid. Some allowances have to be made for the growing pains they are bound to endure, ideally only at the start of the season.

Napoli’s season got off to a disappointing 2-1 loss against Sassuolo on the away. On match day 2 they faced stiffer opposition in Sampdoria, but they went up 2-0 early and looked to be well on the way to victory. Only to frit away the lead and settle on a 2-2 draw after a rather poor defensive account in the second half.

Match day 3 brought on more defensive headaches as Sarri’s lads twice had to come from behind just to get the 2-2 draw with Empoli. While they showed lots of attacking intent, they never looked to be in the ascendancy.


Lazio (2-0-1)
Lazio are off to a positive start on their campaign in Serie A, winning two of their three fixtures and earning a place inside the top-half-of-the-table. As it is, they are ninth with a 2-0-1 mark and 6 points, level on points with eighth-placed Fiorentina and two points behind league-leading Internazionale.

Both wins were at home however – Lazio beat Bologna 2-1 on opening day and Udinese 2-0 in the last lap around Serie A betting action. So far, they only outing was a 4-0 loss at Chievo, which doesn’t augur well for their upcoming trip to the San Paolo.


Napoli vs. Lazio Match Odd and Soccer Picks:
Despite the early struggles on the season,Napoli enter this clash as the home favorites. Trading at -110 to win outright at bet365, it would seem odds makers are confident that Gli Azzurri will get it together potentially this weekend. Another encouraging sign for Napoli fans is the fact that the draw is trading at a rather large +260 soccer odds, almost as high as a Lazio win at +275.

The painful truth for both teams is – but mainly Napoli – that the win could go either way in this game. At the moment, there’s not one unequivocal sign that suggests Napoli is the smart soccer pick at home. In fact, Napoli haven’t won this matchup in the last three meetings, including a 4-2 loss at home towards the tail end of last season and two legs of Coppa Italia, which featured a 1-0 to Lazio at San Paolo and a 1-1 draw in the nation’s capital.

The last win Napoli enjoyed was a 1-0 win on the road in the domestic reverse last season. Add to that their obvious struggles on defence, which are costing games and points right now – conceding six goals compared to five goals is case-and-point – and it’s a risky play to back Napoli as the -110 favorites.

A lot of the same can be said of Lazio too. For one, they haven’t won on the road yet. Nor for that matter found the net. And they too are conceding more than their offense is producing (four goals scored and five conceded). Based on early form it would be rather overly optimistic to suggest they are the value underdogs on the road at +275 soccer odds.

That leaves us with just one glaring option as the safe soccer pick, which is to back the OVER in total betting markets at -138 soccer odds. All three games went OVER for Napoli while the UNDER cashed just once for Lazio in last weekend’s 2-0 win over Udinese. Overall, in five-of-six games the OVER has cashed for this pair combined, a trend we’re banking on continuing when they cross swords at San Paolo.

Free Soccer Pick: OVER 2.5  at Pinnacle

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