Serie A Soccer Picks: Juventus vs. Fiorentina

Lee Phelps

Tuesday, April 28, 2015 10:52 PM GMT

Two teams who are the toast of Italy face each other in Serie A and William Hill's Lee Phelps is looking at the odds to frame his free betting pick.

Italy’s two remaining European challengers face each other in Serie A with Juventus on the verge of securing the title, while Fiorentina are chasing one of two Europa League places.

 

Juventus
The Old Lady could win the title if Lazio failed to win their game, but with a lead of 14 points and only six games left, it’s only a matter of time anyway. You would imagine Juve would like to have it put to bed by the time the UEFA Champions League semi-final comes around in a week’s time.

They have a great record against Wednesday’s league opponents, having won more games (69) and scored more goals (244) against them than anyone else. They have lost only one of their last 13 league meetings too, keeping a clean sheet in five of the last six.

If you need more, Juve have also found the net in each of their last 28 league home meetings against Fiorentina. The home form is of course astounding with a long unbeaten run and eight straight wins, conceding just two goals in that run. However, as Serie A odds know, the champions-elect have lost two of their last three league games, as many as they had in their previous 59 Serie A fixtures.

Regular readers will know I’ve made money from Carlos Tevez this season and his rich scoring vein continued against Lazio in the last win at home (2-0). In fact 12 of his 18 league goals have come at home so the 2.0 (Evs) for him to score at any time is tempting.

 

Fiorentina
It looks like the Europa League has taken Fiorentina’s eye off the league. They have lost three Serie A games in a row for the first time since February 2012. More worrying is the defeats came against Hellas Verona, who are mid-table, Cagliari who are in the bottom three and Napoli, which is fair enough.

It is three games since they have won away from home too, with a 2-2 draw at Udinese and a 4-0 loss at Lazio, so looking at the collateral form against the other top sides, it’s hard for soccer odds makers to see how they will beat Juve at their stadium.

 

Soccer Picks
The win price on Juve on a night when they could be crowned champions in front of their own fans is 1.73 (8/11) and that is probably good enough for many, it will definitely be going in my accumulator bets.

I love doubling bets up though, so I’m willing to risk pairing up that win price with a Tevez goal at 2.5 (6/4) as part of my soccer picks.

Free Soccer Pick: Carlos Tevez to score and Juve win 2.5 (6/4)

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