Serie A Soccer Picks for Juventus vs. Fiorentina

Nila Amerova

Thursday, March 6, 2014 2:11 PM GMT

Fiorentina descend on Juventus in week 27 Serie A betting, hoping to get their season back on track after a spate of poor results. Can Fiorentina turn the odds in their favour at the expense of the hosts? Find out as we analyse this intriguing clash and deliver our soccer free picks.

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Fiorentina on poor form

With just one victory in their last six matches home and away in Serie A, it’s safe to say that Fiorentina are mired in a little, mini slump. A dip in form that has allowed Napoli (in third place) to pull ahead by seven points and, in turn, dealt a setback to La Viola’s ambitions for a third place finish this season, a feat that just last week was listed at +500 soccer odds but is now listed at +650 at Bet365, a significant distance away from both Roma and Napoli that have this market cornered at -20000 and -1000, respectively.

The New Year began promisingly with La Viola reeling off two wins and two draws to wrap up January on an undefeated mark in Serie A. Interspersed between those results were two victories in Coppa Italia over Chievo and Siena. But then came February and the wheels came off, all of a sudden, sending La Viola bouncing around erratically from one frustration to another to the chagrin of Vincenzo Montella and fans alike and prompting many to chalk this spate of poor form to concerning signs of fatigue courtesy of running campaigns on many fronts, including UEFA Europa League, which also kicked off in February.

Tale told February passed with just one victory in Serie A action – a 2-0 victory over middleweights Atalanta that was nothing to write home about really – a 2-2 draw to Parma and three defeats to Cagliari, Inter Milan and Lazio; the latter outcome an unexpected upset with Lazio matched at +300 soccer odds for the victory.

With such dodgy form ahead of this clash against Juventus, it should come as no surprise therefore that Fiorentina, despite ranking fourth in the Serie A table, are listed at the huge disadvantage to beat Juventus across sportsbook platforms. Bet365 offers a Fiorentina win at +650 soccer odds while William Hill matches Fiorentina at +600 to win outright.

Juventus flying high

Juventus have this match firmly cornered on -225 soccer odds to win outright at William Hill while Bet365 match the hosts at even higher -250 soccer odds to win outright. Underscoring this blatant favouritism is their body of work this season in Serie A that is nigh flawless.

With a 22-3-1 mark and an eleven-point edge in the table over nearest threats Roma, Juventus are riding roughshod over the Serie A field and nowhere more so than on home turf where they are an impeccable 13-0-0 this season, highlighted by a stunning 37 goals scored and just eight conceded.

Most recently, Juventus are riding an eight game undefeated streak (across all competitions), a run of form that includes a six-game winning streak since a 2-2 draw to Hellas Verona on February 9. What’s more, their last four victories were clean sheets.

That said, only one Italian team has beaten Juventus in domestic action this season and, ironically, it was....wait for it...drum roll....Fiorentina.  [Ahh and so the plot thickens]. La Viola beat Juventus in October 4-2 at Stadio Artemi Franchi.

Clearly, sportsbooks might not be giving Fiorentina their due credit here (and for good reason given their recent dip in form) but Juventus can’t take anything for granted. It’s also worth noting that Buffon, Barzagli, Marchiso and Pirlo (to name a few) all answered the call of duty in midweek International friendly action for Italy against Spain, a world cup preparation fixture they alas lost 1-0 at the Vicente Calderon in Madrid. Short haul trek it might be but still a trek that could wreck havoc with fitness.

Soccer Betting Verdict: On paper, everything about this matchup suggests that it’s a home banker with Juventus the smart pick to win outright at -225 at William Hill. To all intents and purposes, they should come through on their favourable odds.

Yet, there is a niggling possibility that this match could go against the grain especially seeing that several players including Buffon, the man between the posts and the heart and soul of Juventus’ defence, are returning from International action. Travel and fatigue could seep into the Juventus camp. What’s more, Fiorentina beat Juventus earlier this season, a result that could send them into this clash with measured optimism. Of course, easier said than done but you must agree it’s possible. That said it’s not a soccer pick for the fainthearted so best stick to the betting trends if you’re not a chancer.

Soccer Free Picks: Fiorentina at +650 for the upset.