Serie A Soccer Picks: Bet Napoli vs. Genoa to Go 'Over'

Lee Phelps

Friday, January 23, 2015 8:54 PM UTC

Friday, Jan. 23, 2015 8:54 PM UTC

Two team vying for Champions League qualification go head-to-head on Monday in Serie A. Our tipster has looked at the betting and is weighing up whether to take some big odds as his free pick

If you don’t follow Italian football and glanced at the Serie A table, you would probably think these two teams are pretty close, with only five points and four places separating them. Then you would look at the soccer odds and see Genoa at over 9/1 and snap it up. Whoa there! Hold your horses for a second. Let’s look at this a little closer.


First of all it’s worth knowing that while Genoa’s players have been training and having a nice normal week, Rafa Benitez’ team has been in Copa Italia action against Udinese defending their title from last season.

The home team are third in the division, a massive 13 points behind Juve and eight behind second placed Roma, so they’re fighting for the chance to get in the Champions League qualifiers next season and they have faltered a little at home lately.

They’re on a run of one win in four at the Stadio San Paolo, but the goals are still there, with Gonzalo Higuain, José Callejón and Daniel Zapata all weighing in with their fair share. They have scored the third highest number of home goals in the table (21) behind Juve and Roma, but (and it’s a big but) they have conceded the fourth highest in front of their own fans. Only the teams in the bottom three places have let in more.

There was no sign of that kind of defending in their last match, a very solid 1-0 win at Lazio with Higuain striking the winner, in a result that saw them leapfrog their opponents.


This is the story of the season so far for Genoa. They started with a narrow defeat to Napoli of all teams, with a 90th minute de Guzman goal taking the points back to Naples, then they had one more defeat in the following 13 matches, lifting them up the table.

Seven of those games were wins and everything was rosy in Genoa’s garden, but since mid-December they have forgotten what three points look like, losing three and drawing two, conceding 11 in the process.

Goals are guaranteed in their away games too, with over 2.5 landing in their last eight. They have scored the third highest number of away goals in Serie A and I expect this game to be a high scorer too.


Soccer picks
If Napoli hadn’t played on Thursday, I’d add them to my soccer picks to win this game, but I wouldn’t be surprised to see Genoa peg them back as they tire in this Monday night game. They have scored goals in the last 10 minutes in four of their eight away games.

I’m staying away from the outright, although I do think the away is a big price, but I’m going for goals given the stats I’ve described. Add to all of them the fact that five of Napoli’s home games have featured four or more goals and three of Genoa’s road trips have seen over 3.5 too.


Free soccer pick: Over 3.5 goals 3.0 (2/1)

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