Serie A Soccer Picks: Bet Milan's Derby to Draw & Stay 'Under'

Nikki Adams

Friday, September 11, 2015 7:43 PM UTC

Friday, Sep. 11, 2015 7:43 PM UTC

An all-city rivalry features on the soccer betting menu in Italy’s fashion capital when Inter Milan and AC Milan collide. Read our preview with soccer picks for this Serie A clash.

Inter Milan Notional Faves
Hosts Inter Milan are the notional favorites in Sunday’s highly anticipated clash with AC Milan, marking round 3 of Italy’s top flight. As it is, they are trading as the favorites, albeit on the long side of even money at +120 soccer odds at Bet365.

Inter Milan are off to a flying start in Serie A, winning their first two rounds. They opened the season with a 1-0 win over Atalanta at home and followed with a 2-1 win over Capri, although both wins featured lesser opposition and needed late goals to clinch maximum points.

It’s fair to say, AC Milan pose a completely different challenge this Sunday. As most derbies do, this city rivalry provokes emotional fervour among its fans and reprises the cultural and historical backgrounds of both teams. That response trickles down to the players themselves as they get caught up in the media hype, the intensity of the occasion and are enthused with the weight of expectation from those in their camps.


AC Milan Severe Underdogs
AC Milan’s start to the season can be described as so-so behind a 1-0-1 mark, which puts them in 12th  place with just 3 points. Their opening match featured last season’s standout Fiorentina in Florence, which they lost 2-0. Consider the quality of Fiorentina and the season they are coming off perhaps some allowances can be made for the loss. In the second round, they had to work hard to beat Empoli, a side that is on many a radar in relegation betting.

If there’s one thing that is a cause for concern, it’s the lack of attacking initiative. AC Milan’s offense has stuttered in the first two rounds and hasn’t been able to create viable scoring opportunities. Not to mention, they’ve only accounted for four shots on target in two matches, which is dreadful to put it mildly.

It’s a new-looking Rossoneri that has made its debut this season. After last season’s disappointing run Pippo Inzaghi was shown the exit and new manager Sinisa Mihaijlovic brought in, a move that was met with plenty of approval. Two rounds in and just three points, the bonhomie is wearing thin. And he receives no favors from the schedule with a round 3 date against Inter to test the progress of his mandate in improving Rossoneri on both sides of the ball. As it is, AC Milan are at the significant disadvantage on the soccer odds board, trading at +240 to win outright, which is slightly larger than the +230 soccer odds for the draw.


Soccer Betting Verdict:
As far as the Milan derby goes, it hasn’t served up a goal-fest in recent memory with the bulk of the scores hitting the UNDER 2.5 in totals betting. Immediately, that is our recommended soccer pick, which can be backed at Bet365 at -133 soccer odds. Three of the last six meetings across competitions were decided by a 1-0 score-line, two resulted in 1-1 draws and one resulted in a scoreless draw.

In terms of head-to-head edge, it’s split down the middle in Serie A action with each side winning once in the last five meetings. The remaining three went to the draw, including both meetings last season. As a result, the draw does appear to be the best soccer pick at +230 soccer odds. Those that are buying what the hosts are selling, though, might want to risk a small play on Inter winning at +120 soccer odds. That said don’t go betting the farm on it.

Free Soccer Picks: Draw +240 and UNDER 2.5 at -133 at Pinnacle

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