Serie A Picks & Predictions: Inter Milan vs. AC Milan

Mike Richardson

Monday, April 28, 2014 6:36 PM GMT

Monday, Apr. 28, 2014 6:36 PM GMT

The Derby della Madonnina (aka the Milan Derby), is one of THE major crosstown derbies, not just in the Italian league, but in the world, and your Humble Handicapper looks to keep on cleaning up with this local clash. Stay on top of your game as we analyze key factors and find the most valuable pick.

The bookies have the Italian top flight as a done deal with Juventus favourites at 1/100 to lift the trophy (a pointless bet) and Roma at 28/1 long shots. Still there’s plenty to play for and money to be won elsewhere in the table.

Fifth-placed Inter, are now six points off Parma and AC Milan as they attempt to secure a Europa League place. Saturday saw Inter endure a goalless draw with Napoli, leaving Napoli still chasing the Champions League finish they crave. It was an even first half with both sides creating numerous chances, but the game refused to serve up a goal.

To put these sides and their season into some form of context you should know that Inter Milan are 19/10 on a top four finish in Serie A, and 9/1 on a top three finish. Inter are also available at best soccer odds of 14/1 to finish top six while the Rossoneri are 2/11.

 

Enough with Inter’s finishing position…WHERE’S THE MONEY MIKE?
The basics have an AC win at 11/8, a draw at 23/10 and an Inter win at 7/4. That’s pretty close and when you consider that AC winning both halves is at 14/5 and Inter winning both halves is at 10/3, you can see why.

Inter are undefeated in their last five, but have only two wins (and three draws) in that run, whereas AC Milan did lose their last game – but won the four games preceeding that.

Inter gave outscored their recent opponents 10-4 in their last five games and more importantly have kept three clean sheets on the bounce. You can pick up odds of Inter winning (which I think they will by the way) to nil at 9/2. For the sake of parity Milan winning to nil is at 7/2.

Look back at your Humble Handicapper's pick Manchester City vs. Crystal Palace

Pub bore / Interesting facts alert
This match is called "Derby della Madonnina" in honour of, the statue of the Virgin Mary on the top of the Duomo, which is often referred to as the "Madonnina" in Milan. And the first derby match between these sides was held in the final of the Chiasso Cup of 1908, where The AC Milan won 2-1. A repeat of that score is offered up at best soccer odds of 9/1.

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Home advantage doesn’t exist here
The Derby della Madonnina is one of the few derbies that is always played in the same stadium, as the San Siro, is home for both Milan and Internazionale.

In the last five meetings between these two sides we’ve seen Inter come out on top four times and the other was a draw, maybe you’d think that that means AC Milan are due a win...but your Humble Handicapper disagrees.

In three of the last five meetings, Inter have come out on top and they’ve come out on top by the same score and the same margin by a single goal, and with a 1-0 score. 'Under' 2.5 goals is at Evens but I think we can go further than that, 'under' 1.5 goals is a very valuable soccer pick at 14/5.

Inter will come out on top but I have a feeling we won’t see the winning goal until the second half. Also bet on the game being drawn on the 45 and Inter’s on the 90 at 11/2.

Soccer Prediction: Inter win 1-0 available at best soccer odds of 10/1 with Paddy Power.

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