Serie A Picks for Fiorentina vs. AC Milan

Nila Amerova

Monday, March 24, 2014 6:39 PM UTC

Monday, Mar. 24, 2014 6:39 PM UTC

AC Milan’s woefulness this season has been a source of misery for fans and, conversely, a source of great profit for those betting against them. So can we profit once again on AC Milan’s woes as Serie A betting goes midweek on us? Find out as we analyse this clash and deliver our betting verdict.


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AC Milan’s woes set to continue
AC Milan descend on Fiorentina in week 30 Serie A betting as the decided underdogs, listed at +225 soccer odds to win outright. This rather grim outlook has everything to do with what’s been a subpar season by their lofty standards and continuously declining form.

So much for preseason futures betting forecasts that tipped the Rossoneri as the second favourites to challenge for the title at 5/1, behind Juventus at 5/6 soccer odds. Sat in 12th place in Serie A with a 9-9-11 mark on the season and 36 points – eight points clear of the drop zone – AC Milan’s season is dying a slow and agonising death. So utterly off the mark were odds makers that it beggars belief. Not only are the Rossoneri nowhere near the title race but also they are well outside of a European spot for next season.  

The only soupcon of good news for AC Milan and their supporters is that they can look forward to the upcoming Serie A season. Somehow, despite their woes, they did enough to ensure another season in Italy’s top flight. Go figure.

The second half of the season started somewhat auspiciously with AC Milan winning five of eight league fixtures (going 5-1-2 in Serie A both home and away). But since March dawned they are without a victory in Serie A and that is most concerning as the club reaches a new nadir.

In week 28 Serie A betting, AC Milan finally snapped a three-game losing streak (four across all competitions) with a 1-1 draw away to Lazio and gained a desperately needed point. That said taking the shine off that golden nugget is the fact that it was an own goal that put the visitors ahead in the first half. Thanks only to Alvaro Gonzalez’s second half strike did Lazio deny AC Milan what would have been a very, very undeserved victory and three points. Still beggars can’t be choosers. AC Milan are certainly not going to be complaining about the point gained, be it with or without merit.


Smart money on Fiorentina
Fiorentina are deemed as the favourites to win outright across sports betting platforms but, somewhat curiously, they are listed just shy of even money at +120 soccer odds at Bet365. What gives?

Fiorentina are sat in fourth place in the table and still in play for a Top 3 finish at +600 futures betting odds. On the back of a 15-6-8 mark they are just six points adrift of Napoli in third place. That being said recent form does reveal a dip with three defeats in their last six fixtures across all competitions, a stretch that has prompted many to suggest that the wheels are coming off their promising dart through the season and probably goes some way towards explaining this curious sports betting market.

But are the wheels really coming off or are they just victims of a tough schedule in recent weeks? Let’s face it, three fixtures against Juventus, two of which were part of Europa League action, in the space of a week and some change is a tough schedule indeed. Not to mention league dates with top opposition in Parma, Lazio and Napoli all thrown in for good measure during this tough stretch that goes back to February 24.

So assuming Fiorentina were victims of a tough schedule it would appear we could make allowances for this so-called dip in form. Granted they obviously didn’t handle the tough schedule very well – bowing out of Europe on the back of a 2-1 aggregate to Juventus probably their most bitter disappointment. But they didn’t do too badly either, namely they bounced back at the weekend with a 1-0 victory over Napoli and that latest result augurs well for a resurgence down the stretch.


Fiorentina vs. AC Milan Betting Tips and Picks:
To all intents and purposes, AC Milan’s season is done and done. The title is out of the question. And now even Europe. They have nothing to play for really, save for pride. But when we’ve seen very few (if any) signs of that quality in their game this season, banking on it right now seems a wasted exercise. AC Milan is a side in crisis from top to bottom. They are utterly off form and colour and have very little confidence going for them. Indeed, they’ll have all to do to deliver on their disadvantaged +225 soccer odds.

Fiorentina, by contrast, have shown fight and grit. True, they’ve suffered some setbacks in recent weeks but they also haven’t allowed them to become defining. Case-and-point, they bounced back with a win over Napoli, their nearest threats in the table for a Top 3 Finish. All things being considered, it’s somewhat surprising that odds makers haven’t cornered this match in their camp. Then again, their error in judgement could be to our gain as at +120 soccer odds to win outright not only is smart money on them but also they are the value soccer pick.

Soccer Free Picks: Fiorentina to win outright at +120 at Bet365

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