Serie A Hellas Verona vs. AS Roma: Soccer Odds, Prediction and Pick

Kevin Stott

Sunday, February 22, 2015 3:55 AM GMT

AS Roma sits in 2nd place in Serie A and need wins and all 3 points against bottom-of-the-table teams. Here, il Giallorossi are at Hellas Verona, a team they have a 10-game unbeaten league streak.

Odds Overview
Hellas Verona vs. AS Roma, Sunday 14:00 (beIN Sports en Español, beIN SPORTS CONNECT, RAI International (US); ESPN UK/HD (UK), 9 a.m. ET/6 a.m. PT): Second-place AS Roma (13-7-2, 36 GF-17 GA) heads to Verona and Stadio Marcantonio Bentegodi on Sunday to face 14th-place Hellas Verona (6-6-10, 24 GF-37 GA) in a Week 24 Italian Serie A match which seems to be a little more important for the visitors, although Hellas Verona (24 points) sits just 5 points above the Relegation Zone heading into this round of play.

AS Roma are currently solid -127 soccer odds favorites at bet365 in the Three-Way (Winner) marketplace with the hosts Hellas Verona big +425 home underdogs and the Draw priced at +260. The Total Goals has been set at 2½ (Under -111, Over -111; bet365) while the popular Both Teams To Score Prop odds has both the Yes and the No priced at -120 (Sky Bet). Some other Props: AS Roma To Win To Nil is lined at +187 (bet365; Hellas Verona +800); and, Double Chance: AS Roma-Draw -550, Hellas Verona-AS Roma -344, Hellas Verona-Draw +114 (bet365).

 

Hellas Verona FC
Host Hellas Verona (4-2-5 Home, 14 GF-17 GA) has one distinct goal for the rest of the Serie A season and that’s to stay up in Italy’s top flight. But with il Gialloblu having scored just 24 goals as we enter the 24th Round of Play, well, you can see what the big problem is. Forward Luca Toni (9 goals, +225 Anytime Goalscorer, bet365) leads Hellas Verona in scoring but the club’s next two leading scorers—Nicol López and Panagiotis Tachtsidis—have just 4 and 3 goals respectively, putting an awful lot of pressure on il Gialloblu’s GKs to try to keep the team in games. Luckily for Hellas Verona, Serie A is a somewhat relatively low-scoring European league and a number of their Serie A counterparts currently in the bottom half of the table have the same offensive problem.

In their last league game, Hellas Verona was blasted and embarrassed at Genoa, 5-2 as 33-year-old GK Francesco Benussi got the start from manager Andrea Mandorlini and proved he probably shouldn’t be in there for the Gialloblu (regular GK Rafael is injured). One area Hellas Verona has proved to be decent at this season is in rallying for a win. Hellas Verona has claimed the joint-most points (10, tied with Genoa) from a leading situation while AS Roma have lost the fewest points (4) from a leading position so far this season in Serie A. So, one club here is good at coming from behind in matches and the other is good at not letting teams come from behind for points. Here, Hellas will look to Toni—who has scored the team’s L3 goals in Serie A play but just 3 in 16 lifetime appearances against Hellas Verona—and fellow forwards Juanito (Juan Ignacio Gomez Taleb, +375) and Lazaros Christodoulopoulos (+333)—who has more vowels in his name than you have fingers, Bubba—to get on the board against an AS Roma team known for its defense. And although il Gialloblu can probably find a way to score a goal here on Sunday, I’m not quite sure they can find a way to win.

 

AS Roma
AS Roma (6-3-2 Away, 13 GF-10 GA) may be the most sluggish second-place team in all of Europe’s major soccer leagues and heading into this weekend, il Giallorossi (The Yellow-Reds) sit 7 points behind first-place Juventus (53 points) and will need probably everything to go right to catch the Old Lady to somehow win the league. On Thursday, AS Roma drew with Dutch Eredivisie’s Feyenoord in Leg 1 of their Round of 32 Knockout Stage UEFA Europa League Series in Rome (1-1) and in its last game in Serie A play last weekend, Roma tied Parma 1-1. Five of the L6 Roma games have all seen Under 2½ goals (2-2, 0-0, 2-1, 0-2, 1-1, 1-1), with 4 ending in a Draw. Food for thought.

Here at Verona, AS Roma will look to captain Francesco Totti (+137 Anytime Goalscorer, Sky Bet), Seydou Doumbia (+137), Gervinho (+137)—who scored Roma’s lone goal against Feyenoord—Adam Ljajic (+175), Tomáš Vestenický (210), Alessandro Florenzi (+225), Miralem Pjanic (+275), Radja Nainggolan (+550) and the aforementioned De Rossi (+375) for scoring in this one. The visitors will probably have regular goalkeeper Morgan De Sanctis back in their starting XI after using Lukasz Skorupski in Thursday’s draw in UEFA Europa League play at Stadio Olimpico in Rome.

 

Best Betting Approaches and Trends
AS Roma is 26-16-9 lifetime in Serie A play against Hellas Verona (70 GF-43 GA) and 8-10-7 (27 GF-25 GA) here at Verona. In the L15 games versus Hellas Verona—losers of 3 straight—AS Roma has scored in every single one, averaging 2.5 gpg along the way—so both Both Teams To Score and Total (Goals) bettors may be interested. But remember AS Roma’s current run of 5 of 6 matches with 2 or less goals being scored. But probably the biggest thing here is that Hellas Verona in winless in its L10 against AS Roma (LLLLDLLDLL), going (0-2-8) with that last win coming at Home in Verona all the way back in the 1996/1997 season. AS Roma manager Rudi García’s side is unbeaten in its L13 league games—with 5 Draws in the L6 outings—and have won the Time of Possession in all 23 of its Serie A games it has played heading into this tilt and have conceded the fewest goals (5) in the second half of the season. Logic says take the better team playing for more with the better defense and stronger firepower, despite the site. The price for this soccer pick is fair, and playing AS Roma in the Draw No Bet marketplace seems smart until one gets a looks at the odds (prices) at -400 (William Hill, bet365). Better to bet a moderate amount on AS Roma and go for the win and fair payback in my mind. If Genoa can put a 5-spot up on Hellas Verona, than AS Roma should be able to find a way to beat them this weekend at the Bentegodi.

 

PREDICTED FINAL: Hellas Verona 1 AS Roma 2
FREE SERIE A PICK: AS Roma -137 (bet365)

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