Serie A Best Bets: Soccer Picks and Predictions

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Serie A Best Bets: Soccer Picks and Predictions
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Italy’s top-flight soccer league serves up several standout fixtures at the weekend. Find out where to line up soccer picks as we preview the best bets for the weekend’s slate of Seria A fixtures.

Napoli vs. Fiorentina

Saturday, January 18, 2019, 2:45 PM EST

Live Soccer Odds

Napoli has had a rough start to the new year with back-to-back losses to Inter Milan and Lazio, the upshot of which has Gli Azzuri slipping down to 11th in the Serie A table with a 6-6-7 mark and 24 points. Napoli’s results belie their performance in recent weeks, which was decent but not good enough to upend two of the season’s best performers in domestic action – Inter and Lazio. It goes without saying, Gennaro Gattuso’s ragazzi must get back on track if they hope to climb back into European contention. As it is, they’re at least 11 points behind Italy’s top four.

The Neapolitans will look to capitalize when La Viola descend on Stadio San Paolo on Saturday. Bookmakers fancy the hosts to come through, with the best soccer odds currently available with Heritage sportsbook where a home win is priced at -154 in moneyline betting markets. It’s worth noting, the soccer odds stand in stark contrast to current home form. With its own fans in front, Gli Azzuri have mustered up a modest 3-2-4 mark this season, but they’re winless in their last five fixtures (0-2-3) and riding a three-match losing streak.

Suppose Fiorentina’s own Serie A woes lend themselves to this conflicting market outlook. La Viola are idling in the league’s basement and flirting with relegation. Giuseppe Iachini’s side is currently sat in 14th with a 5-6-8 mark and 21 points, seven points clear of the relegation zone. Recent form saw Fiorentina pick up four crucial points from their last two fixtures in the new year, getting the most out of bottom-of-the-table SPAL last weekend after sharing in the spoils with Bologna the week prior. La Viola take a 1-2-3 mark in their last five away trips to Napoli.

All told, it’s hard to feel totally confident about either side, given recent form and team trends. That said, Napoli does have the benefit of a head-to-head edge in their last three meetings with a 2-1-0 mark, prompting a small wager on Napoli to come through on their money line odds.

Soccer Picks: Napoli to win at -154 with Heritage

US Lecce vs. Inter Milan

Sunday, January 19, 2019, 9:00 AM EST

Live Soccer Odds

Inter Milan are giving Juventus chase at the top of Serie A, two points adrift of the current leaders with a 14-4-1 mark and 46 points. Next up for I Nerazzurri is a date with US Lecce on the away, a bottom-half feeder desperate to avoid relegation when all is said and done. I Giallorossi are sat in 17th place with a woeful 3-6-10 mark and 15 points, just a point shy of relegation-threatened Genoa and Brescia (level on 14 points) and three-points clear of bottom-placed SPAL.

It’s obvious both sides are headed in opposite directions as things currently stand, making this matchup a total mismatch that is underpinned by rather lopsided soccer odds across sports betting shops. So much so, soccer bettors will struggle to find value bets on Inter to win outright.

Arguably, the best bet available for soccer picks here may be found in total betting markets. Antonio Conte’s side is riding a nine-game undefeated streak on their travels through Italy’s top-flight all the while scoring 22 goals and conceding 9 goals. During this run of form, they’ve managed only two clean sheets – at AC Milan (2-0) and at Torino (3-0). In each and every other match they’ve conceded at least one goal all the while scoring at least two goals per contest.

Lecce are winless in their last nine fixtures in front of their home faithful, a run of subpar form that includes conceding 17 goals. Five of those fixtures included conceding two goals or more and six of those saw the score go OVER 2.5 goals.

Soccer Picks: Over 2.5 goals at -189 with SkyBook

Juventus vs. Parma

Sunday, January 19, 2019, 2:45 PM EST

Live Soccer Odds

Juventus are soaring in Serie A with a 15-3-1 mark and 48 points, a seasonal deposit that includes a stellar 8-1-0 mark in front of their fans in Turin. The only side to take points off the Old Lady thus far was Sassuolo last month. However, I Neroverdi descended on Allianz Stadium immediately after Juventus’ Champions League date with Atletico Madrid and the pivotal midweek clash in Europe’s top-flight club competition likely took its toll on Mauricio Sarri’s side, resulting in the surprising 2-2 draw.

Thanks to a 2-1 win over Roma in the last lap of Serie A, Juventus climbed back into top spot in the table. The win marked their second straight win after beating Cagliari 4-0 to kick start the new year, in which Cristiano Ronaldo got a hat-trick scoring all three goals in the second half. In their last five home fixtures, Juventus boast a 4-1-0 mark all the while scoring 12 goals and conceding just 4. Ronaldo has kicked off the new year with four goals in the last two fixtures, to improve to 14 goals on the season.

Parma are seventh in the table with an 8-4-7 mark and 28 points. They’re seven points adrift of the top four in the table but recent form leaves something to be desired. Gli Emiliani are flush off a 2-0 win over Lecce at home but their last road trip resulted in a humiliating 5-0 beatdown by Atalanta. Overall, Parma are 3-3-3 on their travels across Italy. While they’ve taken the measure of Inter Milan in a 2-2 draw in October, the outcome came on the heels of Inter’s Champions League date with Borussia Dortmund. Clearly, Parma took advantage of a tough spot for Juventus because the rest of Roberto D’aversa’s side’s positive results appear to be at the expense of lesser opponents.

Naturally, the market is cornered with the hosts to come through with all three points and at the best price of -404 with Heritage Sportsbook it’s a worthwhile bet for Serie A soccer picks even if the value is debatable. However, better return on a wager is had in periphery soccer betting markets, such as the combination market for the result and both teams to score where Juventus to win and both teams to score is trading in plus money. Given Juventus is set to compete in midweek Coppa Italia action the tough schedule could take its toll.

Soccer Picks: Juventus and Yes for Both Teams to Score at +179 with Bovada