Saturday's Euro 2016 Betting Odds Analysis & Free Picks

Friday, June 10, 2016 12:46 PM GMT

Let’s look at Saturday’s three EURO 2016 games and come up with some logical picks knowing scoring goals have proven to much harder for some teams than others.

Match Previews—Saturday, June 11, 2016
Switzerland vs. Albania [14:00] (ESPN, ESPN3, WATCH ESPN, ESPN Deportes, (US), BBC One UK (UK); 9 a.m. EDT/6 a.m. PDT): Group A play in the 2016 UEFA European Championship (2016 EURO) continues on Saturday in Lens, France with Xherdan Shaqiri and Switzerland facing Taulany Zhaka and Albania at Stade Bollaert-Delelis in the second match of the tournament (and early start for those betting in the Western Hemisphere). Oddsmakers have made the Swiss solid -133 favorites with Albania priced at +425 and a Draw at +225 (at Heritage) with the Total (Goals) here is set at 2 with the Under juiced at -123 (Heritage).

The First Half odds see Switzerland as +150 favorites, Albania at +500 and a Half-time Draw at +100 with the First Half Total set at 1, Under -167 (at Bookmaker), hinting strongly that a 0-0 Halftime scoreline is a possibility. Some Props wagers: Both Teams To Score: ‘Yes’ +150, ‘No’ -200 (at Bet365); Draw No Bet: Switzerland -350, Albania +250 (at William Hill); Correct Score: 0-0 +600 (BetVictor), Switzerland 1-0 +450 (Betfair), Switzerland 2-0 +700 (BetVictor), Albania 1-0 +950 (at BetVictor); and, To Win To Nil: Switzerland+162, Albania +650 (BetVictor).

 

Albania Has Never Beaten Switzerland
Albania (+50,000 to win EURO 2016, Bet365) is making their major tournament debut here and will hope to continue playing the type of Defense which got the Red and Blacks to this point with Defender and Captain Lorik Cana and key Defensive Midfielders Burim Kukeli, Amir Abrashi and Taulant Xhaka—who could quirkily face his brother Granit (MF) in this match—in front of Albanian GK Etrit Berisha. The Kuq e Zinjtë employ a 4-3-3 tactical formation on Offense but switch to a 4-5-1 when they don’t have the ball and on the attack, Ledian Memushaj, Migjen Basha and Ergys Kace are excellent passers and with striker Sokol Cikalleshi, Albania (+2800 to win Group A, Betfair) could make life hard for Switzerland (FIFA Rank: 15) on the counter.

Switzerland (+6600 to win EURO 2016, Ladbrokes) has one of its best Rosters it’s ever had here with Xherdan Shaqiri (Stoke City) and Granit Xhaka (Arsenal) but Stephan Lichtsteiner (Juventus) and the Swiss (+450 to win Group A, Coral) need to concentrate on playing better Defense if they want to make the EURO 2016 Quarterfinals. Here, goals should be really scarce and it seems Switzerland finds a way to win behind a Shaqiri goal as the man with the sport’s largest calves seems to always find a way to get that key goal when most necessary. Switzerland (Current Form: LWLLLW) has never lost to Albania (Current Form: LWDLWL), going 5-1-0 and outscoring the Kuq e Zinjtë, 11-4 in the process with the last meeting coming in the 2012/13 season in World Cup Qualifying with Switzerland winning 2-0 at Home and also taking the Albanian leg by a 2-1 scoreline. Albania is currently ranked 42nd by FIFA.

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PREDICTED FINAL SCORE: Switzerland 1 Albania 0
FREE EURO 2016 PICKS: Switzerland -117 (at Coral), Under 2½ -194 (888sport)

Slovakia vs. Wales [17:00] (ESPN, ESPN3, WATCH ESPN, ESPN Deportes, (US), BBC One UK, S4C, BBC Wales (UK); 12 a.m. EDT/9 a.m. PDT): Stade de Bordeaux in Bordeaux is the site of this Group B play opener between Gareth Bale (11 goals, 7 assists in qualifying) and Wales and Martin Škrtel and Slovakia in what should be a very close game throughout and a good candidate for a Draw. Oddsmakers here have made Slovakia the slightest of favorites (+172), so the oddsmakers numbers on the Three-Way Line are screaming for either a 1-1 or 0-0 affair. The Total (Goals) here is set at 2 with the Under juiced at -128 (Heritage) while the First Half odds actually see the Welsh as +265 chalks, the Slovaks at +275 with the Draw—really the favorite—at the end of the first 45+ minutes of play priced at -110 (Bookmaker) with the First Half Total set at ½, Over -156 (Bookmaker). Some Props wagers: Both Teams To Score: ‘Yes’ +110, ‘No’ -142 (BetVictor); Draw No Bet: Wales -120, Slovakia -120 (Bet365); Correct Score: 0-0 +550 (BetVictor), Slovakia 1-0 +600 (BetVictor), Slovakia 2-0 +1300 (BetVictor), Wales 1-0 +600 (BetVictor); and, To Win To Nil: Slovakia +320, Wales +320 (Boylesports).

 

Incredibly Low Draw Line Hints at Tie in Group B Opener?
Wales (FIFA Rank: 26) employs a 2-3-4-1 tactical formation with Real Madrid’s Bale (+184 Anytime Goalscorer, 888sport) the obvious catalyst and key cog and the Welsh usually start Wayne Hennessey as its GK. Although Wales (+10,000 to win EURO 2016, Stan James) is one of those nations it looks like wise backing in this spot, but Slovakia (+15,000 to win EURO 2016, Bet365) is really pretty good and has consistently improved through the years and the oddsmakers have this one right, making them the smallest of favorites. With Michal Duriš (Viktoria Plzen) able to score some goals for the Slovaks—he had three goals in Friendlies against Switzerland and Iceland in November—and much Confidence from their first World Cup appearance in 2010, Manager Jan Kozak has a club which could actually win this group (+750 to win Group B, Bet365) with Wales (+400 to win Group B, Bet365), Russia (+400 to win Group B, Bet365) and favorites England (-125 to win Group B, Bet365) all pretty close to each other overall—save for the Three Lions strikeforce—and ranked fairly closely in the latest FIFA Rankings (England 11, Slovakia 24, Wales 26, Russia 29). Slovakia (WDDWWD) comes in here in better Form than does Wales (LWLDLL) and Bale who have just one Win in their L6 matches.

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PREDICTED FINAL SCORE: Wales 1 Slovakia 1
FREE EURO 2016 PICK: Draw +200 (Bet365)

 

England vs. Russia [20:00] (ESPN, ESPN3, WATCH ESPN, ESPN Deportes, (US), ITV 1 UK (UK); 3 p.m. EDT/12 p.m. PDT): Stade Vélodrome in beautiful Marseille is the site of Saturday’s third and final match, a Group B meeting between Harry Kane and England and GK Guilherme and Russia in what could prove to be a tough Loss for the loser, if there is one. Soccer oddsmakers have made England big -110 favorites with Russia lined at +375 and a Draw at +240 (Bet365) with the Total (Goals) here is set at 2½ with the Under juiced at -118 (Heritage) with the First Half odds seeing the Three Lions as +145 favorites, Russia at +375 and a Half-time Draw at +100 with the First Half Total set at 1½, Under -133 (Bookmaker), hinting strongly at some 1st Half goals.

Some Props wagers: Both Teams To Score: ‘Yes’ +114, ‘No’ -153 (William Hill); Draw No Bet: England -300, Russia +225 (Bet365); Correct Score: 0-0 +800 (Betfair), England 1-0 +550 (BetVictor), England 2-0 +800 (BetVictor), Russia 1-0 +1050 (BetVictor); and, Total Corners: 8½ Over -187, Under +140 (Stan James).

 

England Strikeforce, GK Hart Should Prove to Be Too Much For Russians
Manager Roy Hodgson and England seem to finally have a nice blended Roster of Young and Old talent, and at both ends of the pitch, it seems The Three Lions have a marked advantage over 75% of the team’s in this prestigious tournament with great GK Joe Hart (Manchester City) always capable of registering a Clean Sheet in Group Stage tourney games against equal or lesser opponents and four incredibly solid Strikers on his Roster this time around in Captain Wayne Rooney (Manchester City), Harry Kane (Tottenham Hotspur), Daniel Sturridge (Liverpool) and the speedy young Raheem Sterling (Manchester City).

The problem for Hodgson and England (-125 to win Group B, Bet365), is that he can probably only put three of these guys on the field at the same time—still a nice problem to have. Toss in a Midfield that includes players like James Milner (Liverpool), Ross Barkley (Everton) and the electric Dele Alli (Tottenham Hotspur), and this is a team which should be able to score some goals. And if there’s one player to keep your eye on for England in this tourney, it’s the 30-year-old Spurs sensation Alli who has proven he can both create and score goals (+333 Anytime Goalscorer, Coral). Here, expect England (WWLWWW) to employ a 4-3-3 tactical formation with Rooney, Alli and Kane looked to for creativity on the attack.

For Manager Leonid Slutsky and Russia (WLWLLD), it seems GK Igor Akinfeev (CSKA Moscow) will be pressured early on here, but if Russia (+400 to win Group B, Bet365) can withstand, this opening group game, its next matches against Slovakia (June 15) and Wales (June 20) should both be winnable games. Russia goes with a 4-2-3-1 tactical formation and with MF’s Alan Dzagoev and Igor Denisov both Injured, guys like Aleksandr Golovin (CSKA Moscow), Artem Dzyuba (Zenit. St. Petersburg) and Artur Yusupov (Zenit. St. Petersburg) will really have to step up on the attack. Here Time of Possession will be a key and if England’s Advanced Midfield can find ways to get balls through to its talented front three, The Three Lions may end up going Over the posted Total here (2½u -146, Marathon) themselves if this one gets out of hand..

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PREDICTED FINAL SCORE: England 3 Russia 1
FREE EURO 2016 PICKS: England -105 (at PaddyPower), Over 2½ -146 (Marathon), Harry Kane Anytime Goalscorer +145 (William Hill)