Rubio Closing In On Trump's Election Odds After South Carolina Primary

Jim Makos

Sunday, February 21, 2016 4:56 PM UTC

Sunday, Feb. 21, 2016 4:56 PM UTC

As Nevada and South Carolina primaries are history, we update you with the latest betting US election odds & lines on the top Democratic and Republican nominees.

Trump and Clinton won South Carolina and Nevada primaries on Saturday. Jeb Bush dropping out led to improving Trump’s odds and a dramatic rise to Marco Rubio’s chances, according to the implied probability’s charts at sportsbooks. Can Rubio overthrow Trump as favorite?


Increased Betting Volatility For Republican Nominees
Before the delegation battle moved to South Carolina, Rubio’s odds were trading at +200. On Sunday morning his betting odds are shortening in all sportsbooks online. William Hill and Bet365, for instance, have put up a price of +125, corresponding to an almost 40% drop!

This impressive odds decline further increased the volatility Rubio’s odds experienced over the last couple of weeks. Looking at the big picture here, the long-term trend is facing downward. The question is whether the trend resumes or the volatility is a sign of an imminent reversal. That would signal most likely Trump’s odds to drop even more.

Given that Trump’s win at South Carolina was somewhat expected according to news reports, the drop that his odds are enjoying since Sunday morning is nowhere near the magnitude of Rubio’s. Still, a drop is a drop and whoever has picked a betting pick  on Trump at longer odds is surely welcoming this decline.

Trump’s odds money line has moved from evens to -120, beating the previous low that was printed following the New Hampshire’s victory. Also worth-noting is the short-lived uptrend that occurred between these two primaries at Bet365 chart.

Keeping Calm For Clinton
Meanwhile, Clinton proceeds in the delegation battle for the Democratic party with flying colors after winning Nevada. Her betting odds went down a notch, but in all honesty, there’s not much room for a significant decline as her odds are trading at -500. Some sportsbooks kept their money line unchanged, although they moved Sanders’ odds a bit higher. You can back him at +400 today, a slightly improved line than yesterday’s +350.

This kind of price action favors betting on the top two Republican nominees. Unless you foresee a huge surprise for Clinton’s chance at this point, volatility is only found in the Republican party where the battle is heating up, as Rubio is closing in on Trump.+

***Don't Miss Our In Depth Analysis Of The 2016 US Election Odds***

comment here