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ATP Adelaide Final: Arthur Rinderknech vs. Thanasi Kokkinakis Picks

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ATP Adelaide Final: Arthur Rinderknech vs. Thanasi Kokkinakis Picks
France's Arthur Rinderknech returns the ball to Great Britain's Cameron Norrie (not pictured) during the men's singles group stage match between France and Great Britain of the Davis Cup tennis tournament. Photo by Joe Kalmar/AFP.

Two talented, big-hitting players take to the court in the Adelaide final, and one of them will walk away with their maiden main level title. We give our picks for the Rinderknech-Kokkinakis ATP Adelaide Final.

It’s been a great start to the season for Thanasi Kokkinakis, making the semi-final in the first edition of this event, the Adelaide International, before making the final this week. He’s always been a huge talent — perhaps this will be a breakthrough week for him.

Arthur Rinderknech didn’t have quite so strong a start with a win and two losses in the ATP Cup, though he was playing tough opposition and his level looked strong overall. This week he has looked focused and impressive, with consistent clean, powerful hitting.

Here are my tennis picks and predictions for Saturday’s ATP Adelaide final between Arthur Rinderknech and Thanasi Kokkinakis. (Odds via SBK; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

Rinderknech vs. Kokkinakis Match Info

Date/Time: Saturday, Jan. 15, 3 a.m. ET
TV: Tennis Channel
Location: Memorial Drive Park, Adelaide, Australia

Rinderknech vs. Kokkinakis Odds Analysis

Kokkinakis opened around -150 and has since drifted to an average price of around -120. The opening line didn’t last long with most books, but the price seems to have stabilized since.

I’m not surprised to see this priced so close given their respective form this week. Had either been a clear underdog, it would have been an easy bet.

Rinderknech vs. Kokkinakis Picks

Over 22.5 Games (-156) ★

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Rinderknech vs. Kokkinakis Predictions

No Bet

I really couldn’t pick a side here, with the prices looking about right.

While both have great chances, the ever-so-slight edge goes to Kokkinakis given his (slightly) more complete game. They have a similar style of game, based mainly around high pace, aggressive baselining, though neither is weak on defense and Kokkinakis especially has a decent all-court game. It will be a game decided by play in a few key moments, which is notoriously hard to predict at the best of times, let alone in a final.

There’s very little to split these two on the stats either. Rinderknech and Kokkinakis have won 51.6% and 51.9% of points respectively at main level over the last two years and both have won 53% of games.

On indoor and outdoor hard court, Rinderknech has won 63% of matches (32-19) over the last 12 months for a 2.3% return on investment (ROI), while Kokkinakis has won 65% of matches (22-12) for a 0.2% ROI.

If the home favorite drifts over even money or Rinderknech drifts over +140, those are good bets in my eyes, but otherwise, I’ll pass.

Over 22.5 Games (-156)

Rinderknech and Kokkinakis are both 6’5” tall with very strong serves and relatively weaker return games, leading to a tendency to play long matches.

They have both held 96% so far this week and covered the Over in six of their eight matches combined (four each). Rinderknech has covered the Over in 21 of 28 matches on hard courts including 12 of 14 priced between -200 and +100 — in other words, in close matches like this one. Kokkinakis has covered the Over in 30 of his last 50 on hard courts and 32 of his last 50 priced -200 to +100 on hard courts.

Given their level on serve this week, the only way the Over loses is if one of them gets nervous on the day and can’t recover. Regardless, I would have had the line a point higher at this price.

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Rinderknech-Kokkinakis picks made on 1/14/2022 at 4:10 p.m. ET.