Red Bull To End Mercedes Domination In Hungarian F1 Grand Prix

Jim Makos

Friday, July 22, 2016 2:35 PM UTC

Friday, Jul. 22, 2016 2:35 PM UTC

Formula 1 drivers and teams are visiting Hungary this weekend on a complete resurfaced track that already suited Red Bull cars. 

The maximum-downforce Hungaroring circuit offers Red Bull their best chance of beating the Silver Arrows, which need a perfect weekend to win according to Mercedes’ boss himself, Toto Wolff. He also acknowledged Red Bull to be a major threat in Budapest, since they perform best in low-speed circuits and wet conditions. Given the predicted showers for race day, it’s no wonder why betting odds of favorites, Hamilton and Rosberg, are already drifting in sportsbooks.

Bettors are easily influenced by news and officials’ comments, thus Wolff’s words haven’t gone unnoticed in the betting world. Their opinion is heavily affected by historical stats, so when they hear that the Hungarian Grand Prix is the only race Mercedes haven't won in the turbo-hybrid era, they have another good reason to take Red Bull drivers to win the race next Sunday as their betting pick. Let’s see how all the above moved the betting markets in more detail.

Hungarian GP: Winner betting charts
Although the two Mercedes drivers are favorites to win the race, their betting odds are drifting. Hamilton’s current odds are 2.20 (+120) having opened at 1.80 (-125) on Ladbrokes., while Rosberg’s odds skyrocketed from 3.50 (+250) to 5.00 (+400)! at PaddyPower.

It’s worth noting that this rally happened even before drivers go out to the track for their first practice session! 

Meanwhile, bets on Red Bull’s drivers in the winner market have pushed their odds significantly lower that their opening price. Ricciardo and Verstappen’s betting charts look almost identical, both trading at 8.00 (+700) with Bet365 having followed similar trends. Punters are giving them the same chance for winning on Sunday, which is somewhat expected given another outstanding performance by Verstappen at Silverstone, who finished second (Ricciardo fourth) and out-qualified him, as well!

Formula 1 Drivers Championship: Close call for Mercedes drivers
Rosberg is marginally ahead of his partner in the Championship race having just one point more than Hamilton. Although the Constructors Championship is more or less decided for Mercedes, the competition between the two Mercedes drivers is heating up with neither willing to back down, as they spectacularly demonstrated in recent circuits.
That phenomenon is portrayed on betting charts, as expected.

Rosberg’s chance to win the championship was looking good a couple of months ago, when odds were trading at 1.70 (-140). They have now climbed up to 4.00 (+300) at BetOnline, and in the meantime Hamilton’s odds have dropped below 1.40 (-250), having previously hit a high of 3.50 (+250)!

As we are still in the middle of the Formula 1 season, expect huge volatility on the betting markets over the next months. For the time being I cannot recommend betting on Rosberg but I would neither bet on Hamilton at such short odds. I’d wait for a reversal formation in Rosberg’s chart before risking money on him. Then, if his odds do shorten considerably, I’d wait to do the same thing on Hamilton. In the end, I’d be looking to bet on both of them at longer than 3.00 (+200) odds at Bookmaker to secure a profit before the championship is complete.

And as for the Hungarian GP? Maybe the Hungaroring’s new grippy asphalt will indeed help the Red Bull cars and Wolff is proven correct. Besides, he is the expert here, so I’d back both Red Bull drivers to win in Budapest before they collapse more.

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