Races Tighten in Congressional Midterms and Gubernatorial Elections

Sunday, October 14, 2018 6:10 PM UTC

Sunday, Oct. 14, 2018 6:10 PM UTC

With the balance of power in Congress in play and 36 states choosing governors, interest among voters in the Nov. 6 elections has escalated. Now let's see who shows up at the polls. 

<p>Time is ticking down to Nov. 6, the date of the U.S. midterm elections that will set the tone for the political landscape in the two years heading to the 2020 presidential vote.</p><p>This election will be one of two things: an affirmation of President Donald Trump and his policies or the installation of a wave of Democratic candidates that could alter the balance of power in Congress, putting a check on the executive branch.</p><p>There also will be 36 states holding gubernatorial elections as well.</p><p>Since before the 2015 election, the politics in the U.S. have been increasingly partisan, becoming downright nasty in the last two years with Republicans and Democrats retreating to, and shouting from, their respective sides of aisle.</p><p>Heck, even pop star Taylor Swift, longtime politically neutral, has gotten into the fight endorsing Tennessee Democrats Phil Bredesen and Rep. Jim Cooper in U.S. Senate and House races, respectively, on Instagram.</p><p>Her endorsements sparked immediate praise, a large spike in voter registration and speedy backlash. President Trump said he liked her music "25 percent less" and former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee dismissed her endorsement because "13-year-olds can't vote."</p><p>Swift fans quickly responded with stats on how many supporters the singer has compared to Trump (she has 10 million more) and that her fans have aged into becoming active voters.</p><p>[/]{"component": "embedHTML", "code": "&lt;blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-lang=\"en\"&gt;&lt;p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\"&gt;It's &lt;a href=\"https://twitter.com/hashtag/FridayEve?src=hash&amp;amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\"&gt;#FridayEve&lt;/a&gt; and we've had quite the week. Let's keep it going. &lt;a href=\"https://twitter.com/hashtag/RegisterToVote?src=hash&amp;amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\"&gt;#RegisterToVote&lt;/a&gt; &lt;a href=\"https://t.co/ag8rXMIJ3C\"&gt;pic.twitter.com/ag8rXMIJ3C&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;— VOTE⋅org (@votedotorg) &lt;a href=\"https://twitter.com/votedotorg/status/1050374528268992514?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\"&gt;October 11, 2018&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/blockquote&gt;\n&lt;script async src=\"https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"&gt;&lt;/script&gt;\n"}[/]</p><p>The shouting has gotten so loud it has the attention of several sportsbooks which are offering odds on many of the most competitive races around the country.</p><p><a href="http://https://www.sportsbookreview.com/Sportsbook/?v=4588&amp;book=BOVADA" rel="nofollow" title="Check the Odds">Bovada and 5Dimes</a> are among several sportsbooks with odds on U.S. midterm and gubernatorial races. <a href="https://www.sportsbookreview.com/best-sportsbooks/" rel="nofollow" title="Top-Rated Sportsbooks">Ladbrokes and Paddy Power, which carries odds </a>on elections in the United Kingdom, also has odds on U.S. races.</p><p>On Bovada, bets are being taken on the majority outcome of the 2018 U.S. House of Representatives with -260 odds on a Democratic majority, +180 Republican majority and +5000 no overall majority.</p><p>In the U.S. Senate Election, the odds are -260 on a Republican majority, +450 a Democratic majority and +400 no overall majority.</p><p>You also can wager on exactly how many seats the GOP will have after votes have been tallied: +450 49 seats or less; +650 50; +550 51; +400 52; +450 53; +600 54; +800 55; +900 56; +1500 57; +2500 58 and 59; and +2000 60 or more seats.</p><p>In the Senate, the Democrats have an uphill battle, with 10 senators in tough re-election battles. The GOP, clinging to a 51-49 majority, has a strong chance to actually gain seats, with the hottest fights in Florida, Missouri and North Dakota. Senate races, too, are experiencing the “Kavanaugh bump,” by a Republican base energized by Judge Brett Kavanaugh getting confirmed for the U.S. Supreme Court. It is too close to call how many they will gain, but we feel they will definitely gain seats.</p><p>In the House, all 435 seats are will be on state ballots, with 48 being competitive. Democrats need a net gain of 24 seats to take the majority and polling and political pundits, including online political site FiveThiryEight estimating a 78 percent chance of the House changing hands.</p><p>Select congressional and gubernatorial <a href="https://www.bovada.lv/sports/politics" rel="nofollow" title="More Odds">bets at Bovada</a> to consider:</p><ul> <li><strong>2018 U.S Senate Election winner – Beto O’Rourke (D) +350 and Sen. Ted Cruz (R) -500</strong>. Even though O’Rourke is raising a lot of money (a record-shattering $38 million last quarter), the latest Quinnipiac University poll has Sen. Cruz ahead 54-45 over his Democratic opponent. Of course, anything can happen, but 97 percent of Cruz supporters have said their minds and votes cannot be changed, which doesn’t bode well for O’Rourke.</li> <li><strong>2018 U.S Senate Election winner – Tennessee: Phil Bredesen (D) +325 and Marsha Blackburn (R) -450.</strong> In the past few weeks, this race has flip-flopped with Blackburn now in the lead by as many as 14 points against former Gov. Bredesen to fill the seat held by retiring Sen. Bob Corker. An awakened GOP base will face among other things, Talyor Swift fans, in this highly contested race. If nothing else we're sure to get a new hit song out of it.</li> <li><strong>2018 U.S Senate Election winner – North Dakota: Sen. Heidi Heitkamp (D) +350 and Kevin Cramer (R) -500.</strong> Things are looking bleak for Heitkamp, who has fallen 10 to 12 points behind her opponent in the last few weeks. But she’s long been an underdog before and FiveThirtyEight says you can’t completely count her out – but we think she’s down for the count.</li> <li><strong>2018 U.S Senate Election winner – Sen. Claire McCaskill (D) +125 and Josh Hawley (R) -155. </strong>Another dead heat according to polls, with challenger and Missouri Attorney General Hawley having a 1-point lead over the incumbent. The poll also shows McCaskill’s no vote regarding Kavanaugh’s confirmation to the Supreme Court hasn’t lessened support among voters.</li> <li><strong>2018 U.S Senate Election winner – Florida: Sen. Bill Nelson (D) -130 and Rick Scott (R) EVEN. </strong>Pretty much a dead heat, according to the latest Mason-Dixon poll. TV ads are hitting Nelson for attendance and being a “career politician” and Scott for past Medicare fraud and his environmental record. Scott leads in men and white voters; Nelson has support from women, blacks and Hispanics. This one is too close to call.</li> <li><strong>2018 Gubernatorial winner – Georgia: Stacey Abrams (D) +160 and Brian Kemp (R) -200. </strong>This dead-heat race is now mired in controversy as Kemp, the state’s Secretary of State who oversees elections, is being sued by the NAACP and other civil rights groups after 53,000 voter applications were put on hold. More than two-thirds of the applications affected are African-American. Abrams, the first black woman from a major party to run for governor, has expressed outrage. The math is simple in this race: if black turnout is high, Abrams likely will win and visa-versa. Another race too close to call.</li> <li><strong>2018 Gubernatorial winner – Florida: Andrew Gillum (D) -140 and Ron DeSantis (R) +110. </strong>The latest poll shows this rate tightening with surprise Democratic primary winner Gillum leading DeSantis by one point, 45-44, with 8 percent undecided. DeSantis, who enjoyed strong support from Trump, is now waving off questions of a rift with the president who called the GOP candidate disloyal for not standing with him regarding hurricane death rates in Puerto Rico. Recent Hurricane Michael is playing a role in the election with Tallahassee Mayor Gillum pulling out of a debate this week to focus on hurricane recovery. And the airwaves in Florida have been flooded with negative ads with both candidates trading barbs through media about the commercials' accuracy. This race will come down to the wire.</li></ul>
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